Project Crystal Ball: Predict and Preserve Profitability of Orchards

世界自然基金会和乐购于2021年6月发布的一份报告发现，全球15%的食物在离开农场大门之前就被浪费了。这种浪费大部分发生在欧洲、北美和亚洲发达国家的中高收入国家，其中一个关键原因是供应链中的人为因素。WRAP今年3月的另一份报告估计，英国农场的食物剩余和浪费总计360万吨，价值12亿英镑。WRAP特别报道说，9.4%的苹果被浪费了，10.8%的苹果剩余，给农民造成了5380万英镑的损失。苹果的价值取决于形状、颜色和瑕疵的存在，尽管尺寸可以说是最重要的衡量标准。果实大小和价值之间的关系是复杂的，每年都在变化，每个品种都不同。无论细节如何，英国农民必须瞄准相当严格的范围目标来实现高价值，如果他们的水果最终超出了这些范围，就会导致苹果生产成本超过预期的商业价值/回报。使用一架成本不到2500英镑的无人机，可以自动获取果园上空的高分辨率画面，避开任何障碍物。这种用于详细作物分析的低资本支出自动化解决方案使农民能够快速，简单且经济地收集整个农场的准确最新作物数据。无人机调查可以深入了解作物的表现，目的是让种植者和农学家简化操作，提高作物质量，最大限度地提高产量。高分辨率摄像头与无人机的速度和精度相结合，意味着农民可以根据需要获得果园的详细地图，显示树木的大小、开花的数量、果实的数量等。这些数据可以被农民用来了解他们的作物是如何生长的，并为他们的选择或干预提供信息，以优化他们的作物价值。在这个项目上，我们将与YAGRO合作，结合无人机调查和详细的商业情报，对正在开发的作物进行产量和质量估计。这将为农民提供市场层面的信息，使他们能够了解他们不断变化的预测的商业价值。通过将迄今为止的生产成本数据与质量要求和终端市场价格联系起来，他们将能够评估他们目前的状况、采取行动的必要性和所涉及的风险。

A report released in June 2021 by WWF & Tesco found that globally 15% of food is wasted before it even leaves the farm gate. The majority of this waste occurs in middle- and high-income countries across Europe, North America and developed Asia, and one of the key reasons is human factors within the supply chain. Another report in March this year from WRAP estimated that food surplus and waste on-farms across the UK totals 3.6 million tonnes, worth £1.2 billion. In particular, WRAP reports that 9.4% of apples are wasted and 10.8% are surplus, with losses to farmers of £53.8m. The value of apples depends on the shape, colour and presence of blemishes, although size is arguably the most important metric. The relationship between fruit size and value is complex, changing every year and different for each variety. Regardless of the details, British farmers must aim for quite tight size band targets to achieve high value, and if their fruit ends up outside these bands, it can result in situations where the apples production costs outweigh the expected commercial value/returns. Using a drone that costs less than £2,500, it is possible to acquire high-resolution footage across an orchard automatically, avoiding any obstacles. This low capex automated solution for detailed crop analysis enables farmers to gather accurate up-to-date crop data across their farms quickly, simply and affordably. Drone surveys can generate insights into a crop's performance, with the goal of allowing growers and agronomists to streamline their operations to improve crop quality and maximise yields. High resolution cameras combined with the speed and precision of a drone means farmers can have detailed maps of an orchard on demand, showing tree size, blossom loading, fruit set and more. These data can be used by farmers to understand how their crops are developing, and inform their choice or interventions to optimise the value of their crops. Working with YAGRO on this project, we will integrate yield and quality estimates on the developing crops based on drone surveys, with detailed commercial intelligence. This will provide farmers with market-level information, enabling them to understand the commercial value of their changing forecasts. By linking data on production costs to date with quality requirements and end-market prices, they will be able to assess their current position, the need for action and the risk involved.