Expanding Integrated Assessment Modelling: Comprehensive and Comprehensible Science for Sustainable, Co-Created Climate Action (IAM COMPACT)

无论是第一轮国家自主贡献（NDCs），还是目前实施的气候政策，都无法实现《巴黎协定》的目标。各方应提高雄心，制定涵盖2030年后时期的新的国家自主贡献。由各国气候政策议程组成的多维政策措施的设计得到了同样多样化的综合评估建模（IAM）活动的支持。尽管最近在IAM文献和场景空间方面取得了进展，但建模世界未能兑现将非科学家纳入其过程的承诺；考虑到个人选择和生活方式的改变，这些选择和生活方式的改变被间接地描述为假设，而不与生动模拟的技术-经济-环境-政策流动相互作用；并将气候行动作为可持续发展领域的一个跨领域主题。IAM COMPACT将支持对全球气候目标、进展和可行性空间的评估，以及主要排放国和非高收入国家下一轮国家自主贡献和2030年后政策规划的设计。我们将使用来自社会政治科学和运筹学的各种模型、工具和见解，并将整合各种知识体系，共同创建研究过程，提高透明度、稳健性和政策相关性。我们将探讨主要排放部门的结构变化以及政治、行为和社会方面在缓解方面的作用；量化促进或阻碍气候中和的因素；并考虑到极端情况，提出一系列环境有效、经济可行、政治可行、社会可取的全球和国家途径。在此过程中，我们将充分考虑到COVID-19的影响和恢复战略，使气候行动与更广泛的可持续发展目标保持一致，同时发展技术能力，促进非高收入国家的自主。

Neither the first round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) nor currently implemented climate policies are on track to meeting the Paris Agreement’s objectives. Parties are expected to increase their ambition and produce new NDCs covering the post-2030 period. The design of a multi-dimensional set of policy measures that comprise countries’ climate policy agendas is supported by equally diverse integrated assessment modelling (IAM) activities. Notwithstanding the recent progress in the IAM literature and scenario space, the modelling world has fallen short of its promise to include non-scientists in its process; to account for individual choices and lifestyle changes that are indirectly narrated as assumptions not interacting with the vividly modelled technology-economy-environment-policy flows; and to place climate action as a cross-cutting theme in the sustainability spectrum. IAM COMPACT will support the assessment of global climate goals, progress, and feasibility space, as well as the design of the next round of NDCs and policy planning beyond 2030 for major emitters and non-high-income countries. We will use a diverse ensemble of models, tools, and insights from social and political sciences and operations research, and will integrate bodies of knowledge to co-create the research process and enhance transparency, robustness, and policy relevance. We will explore the role of structural changes in major emitting sectors and of political, behaviour, and social aspects in mitigation; quantify factors promoting or hindering climate neutrality; and account for extreme scenarios, to deliver a range of global and national pathways that are environmentally effective, economically viable, politically feasible, and socially desirable. In doing so, we will fully account for COVID-19 impacts and recovery strategies, and align climate action with broader sustainability goals, while developing technical capacity and promoting ownership in non-high-income countries.