Statistical Analysis of State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers

本项目的目的是通过承认政府支出是对经济具有异质性影响的部门支出的总和，对政府支出乘数进行新的统计分析。一个额外的复杂因素是乘数也可能依赖于国家，这意味着它的大小在经济衰退和经济扩张期间可能不同。该项目的预期成果包括通过新的分解更好地了解乘数的组成部分，并为乘数的状态依赖性开发新的统计测试。这将为研究人员带来新的工具和见解，并为政策制定者提供及时的财政政策指导，从而使他们受益匪浅。

This project aims to provide a new statistical analysis of the government spending multiplier by acknowledging that government spending is the sum of sectoral spending which has heterogeneous effects on the economy. An added complication is that the multiplier can also be state-dependent, meaning that its magnitude can differ across recessions and expansions. Expected outcomes of this project include a better understanding of the components of the multiplier by novel decomposition and the development of a new statistical test for the state-dependency of the multiplier. This should provide significant benefits to researchers by bringing in new tools and insights and to policymakers by providing timely guidance on fiscal policies.