101056783 -FOCI -HORIZON-CL5-2021-D1-01 - Non-CO2 Forcers and their Climate, Weather, Air Quality and Health Impacts

所示区域b)虽然总体而言，与混合良好的温室气体（ghg），特别是二氧化碳相关的全球变暖的原因和全球过程，以及它们对全球到大陆尺度的影响，已经有了很高的置信度，但在许多非二氧化碳辐射力的影响方面存在知识空白，导致结论的置信度较低。这主要涉及短寿命温室气体和气溶胶及其前体的特定人为和自然前体排放。这些差距和不确定性还存在于它们通过直接排放对大气化学和气候的后续影响中，这些直接排放取决于诸如农业生产和基于未来发展情景的技术的变化，以及全球变暖对排放的反馈，例如永久冻土融化。除了大气辐射强迫（气体或气溶胶）外，与土地利用和土地覆盖有关的反照率变化也可发挥作用，这取决于不同情景中包括的适应或缓解措施。因此，FOCI响应主题D1-01-01区域b)，其主要目标是评估关键辐射力的影响，它们在哪里和如何产生，它们对气候系统的影响过程，找到并测试这些过程在全球地球系统模式（ESMs）和区域气候模式（RCMs）中的有效实施。最后，利用所开发的工具，调查针对欧洲和世界其他区域的未来发展的选定情景中所包含的缓解和/或适应政策。我们将根据改进的排放制定新的区域调整情景，以评估非二氧化碳强迫因素的影响。结果与气候服务生产者和其他最终用户的相互作用将为具体情景的准备和潜在应用提供反馈，以支持包括气候政策在内的决策

Indicated area b) While overall the global warming with the causes and global processes connected to well mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially CO2, and their impacts on global to continental scales are well understood with a high level of confidence, there are knowledge gaps concerning the impact of many non-CO2 radiative forcers leading to low confidence in the conclusions. This relates mainly to specific anthropogenic and natural precursor emissions of short-lived GHGs and aerosols and their precursors. These gaps and uncertainties also exist in their subsequent effects on atmospheric chemistry and climate, through direct emissions dependent on changes in e.g., agriculture production and technologies based on scenarios for future development as well as feedbacks of global warming on emissions, e.g., permafrost thaw. In addition to the atmospheric radiative forcing (gaseous or aerosols), albedo changes connected to land-use and land-cover can play a role, depending on the adaptation or mitigation measures included in different scenarios. Thus, FOCI responds to Topic D1-01-01 area b) and its main goal is to assess the impact of key radiative forcers, where and how they arise, the processes of their impact on the climate system, to find and test an efficient implementation of these processes into global Earth System Models (ESMs) and into Regional Climate Models (RCMs), and finally to use the tools developed to investigate mitigation and/or adaptation policies incorporated in selected scenarios of future development targeted at Europe and other regions of the world. We will develop new regionally tuned scenarios based on improved emissions to assess the effects of non-CO2 forcers. Mutual interactions of the results and climate services producers and other end-users will provide feedbacks for the specific scenarios preparation and potential application to support the decision making, including climate policy