Towards reliable and explainable models for anticipating ecological change

该项目旨在开发一个多变量生态预测的量化框架。这将使我们能够更好地预测生态系统如何应对环境变化。最近的建模进步使得利用群落生态数据的复杂性来提供更好的预测成为可能。该项目打算使用长期的生态数据集来建立和测试新的多变量预测模型，并以澳大利亚狗的壁虱麻痹率为例进行研究。预期结果是研究生态系统变化的更好工具，也是关于生态社区如何形成的新假设。这些模型的应用应该会带来显著的好处，例如预测瘫痪扁虱的负担，以改善风险缓解。

This project aims to develop a quantitative framework for multivariate ecological prediction. This will allow us to better anticipate how ecosystems respond to environmental change. Recent modelling advances now make it possible to use the complexity of community ecology data to deliver better predictions. The project intends to use long-term ecological datasets to build and test novel multivariate prediction models, using tick paralysis rates in Australian dogs as a case study. Expected outcomes are better tools for studying ecosystem change and new hypotheses about how ecological communities are shaped. Application of these models should provide significant benefits, such as prediction of paralysis tick burdens to improve risk mitigation.