Modeling ongoing SARS-CoV2 vaccination strategies in light of emerging data on immunity and viral evolution

总结 虽然引起COVID-19的病原体SARS-CoV-2继续传播，但快速发展和 部署有效的疫苗提供了一种手段，使我们能够减少其未来的影响。最初的疫苗 然而，目前出现的新的SARS-CoV-2变体，以及 免疫力下降的迹象意味着可能需要继续重复接种疫苗。在这里， 我们将建立在我们已经从我们正在进行的旨在模拟潜力的项目中开发的资源之上， 诺如病毒疫苗和我们以前的工作旨在模拟SARS-CoV-2疫苗接种的影响。 研究小组做出了贡献，并调查了SARS-CoV-2疫苗对人群的相对影响， 不同的作用机制;病毒演变的特征模式，有可能影响 疫苗效力和逃逸;并审查了疫苗部署的初步战略，目的是放松 社交距离准则。我们将利用这些数据和建模工具，并在此基础上评估 更充分地了解免疫衰退和病毒进化的模式。我们将使用这些数据和结果， 联合收割机与我们现有的SARS-CoV-2疫苗模拟模型相结合，为模型的建立和标定提供信息 一个扩展的模型。这个扩展的模型将解释SARS-CoV-2及其病毒引起的免疫力下降 进化我们的模型将为围绕持续的SARS-CoV-2的快速出现的科学问题提供信息 疫苗接种和再接种策略，包括加强和疫苗重新配制。

SUMMARY While SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen causing COVID-19, continues to spread, the rapid development and deployment of effective vaccines provide a means by which we can reduce its future impact. Initial vaccines have shown to be highly effective, however, the current emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, together with indications that of waning immunity, means that continued repeat vaccinations are likely to be required. Here, we will build upon resources we have already developed from our ongoing project aimed at modeling potential norovirus vaccines and our previous work aimed at modeling the impact of vaccination for SARS-CoV-2 Our team has made contributions and investigated the relative population impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines with different mechanisms of action; characterized patterns of virus evolution that have the potential to impact vaccine efficacy and escape; and, examined initial strategies for vaccine deployment with the aim of relaxing social distancing guidelines. We will leverage these data and modeling tools and build on this work to assess more fully the patterns of immune waning and virus evolution. We will then use these data and results and combine them with our existing SARS-CoV-2 vaccine simulation model to inform the building and the calibration of an extended model. This extended model will account for waning immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and its viral evolution. Our model will inform rapidly emerging scientific questions around continued SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and re-vaccination strategies, including both boosting and vaccine reformulation.