Predicting cloud cover and solar intensity at PV sites to improve performance of the Low Voltage distribution network

“光伏发电(PV)装机量的快速增长正导致配电网运营商(DNO)的运营出现问题，并影响电力需求状况。这些问题限制了更多光伏发电能力的安装，增加了DNO的运营成本，使电网的预测和平衡复杂化，并影响了光伏运营商的利润率。该项目测试了开发智能系统的可行性，以创建特定地点的云量和太阳强度的短期预测(每隔5至15分钟提前1小时)。这些预测将每15分钟更新一次，因为使用这些预测的新卫星图像可用，该项目将：1.预测光伏站点的站点功率输出。模拟将这些预测整合到需求侧响应(DSR)市场中，以预测光伏发电场和物业的短期发电量，包括现场蓄电池和不现场蓄电池。回顾这些预测如何优化现场发电和需求，以及如何创建微型电网以优化当地电力需求。该项目的地理位置集中在西南部，但该系统将适用于英国的任何地点。该项目的好处是：1.帮助平衡当地配电网络中的当地电力波动2。为了帮助有固定产出合同的太阳能发电场识别短缺，并有机会处理这一不足3。为了帮助拥有(或正在考虑)电池存储的太阳能发电场通过更好地管理存储和太阳能输出的组合来提高此类资产的收入(或商业案例)，例如通过参与DSR市场产生额外的收入。该项目的创新主要在于将短期云量/光伏输出预测与DSR能力相结合，以提供可供商业光伏社区利用的系统/服务。项目团队包括：康沃尔委员会，受电网失衡的严重影响的光伏发电场所有者；BRE-国家太阳能中心，光伏安装和监测方面的领先咨询公司，提供太阳能建议和专业知识；Open Energi是DSR市场的领先专家，拥有光伏行业的现有专业知识；半月板是实时大数据分析专家，是项目负责人。该项目需要两个分包商的具体专业知识：Pixalytics有限公司，提供处理图像的卫星采购专家；巴斯大学，云预测算法方面的专业知识。

"The rapid rise in the installation of photovoltaic power generation (PV) is leading to operational problems for the Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) and impacting the electricity demand profile. These issues restrict installation of additional PV capacity, increase operating costs for the DNO's, complicate forecasting and balancing of the electricity network and impact margins of the PV operators.This project tests the feasibility of developing a smart system to create short term (up to 1 hour ahead at 5 to 15 minute intervals) predictions of cloud cover and solar intensity at specific locations. These predictions will update every 15 minutes as new satellite imagery becomes available Using these predictions, the project will:1. Predict site power output for PV sites.2. Model the integration of these predictions into the Demand Side Response (DSR) market to predict short term electricity output from PV farms and properties, with and without on-site battery storage.3. Review how these predictions can optimise on-site generation and demand, and enable the creation of a micro grid to optimise local electricity demand.The project is geographically focused on the South West but the system will be suitable for any location in the UK.The benefits of the project being:1. To help balance local power fluctuations in the local distribution network2. To help solar farms that have fixed output contracts identify shortfalls and have some opportunity to manage this shortfall3. To help solar farms that have (or are considering) battery storage to improve the revenue (or business case) of such an asset by better managing the combination of storage and solar output, for example generating additional revenue by participating in DSR markets.The innovation in the project lies primarily in the integration of the short term cloud cover/PV output predictions with DSR capability to deliver a system/service that can be exploited by the commercial PV community.The project team comprises; Cornwall Council, a PV farm owner who is impacted significantly by grid imbalances; BRE -- National Solar Centre, a leading consultant in PV installation and monitoring providing solar advice and expertise; Open Energi, a leading specialist in the DSR market with existing expertise in the PV sector; Meniscus, a real time Big Data analytics specialist who is the project lead. The project calls on specific expertise from two sub-contractors; Pixalytics Ltd a satellite acquisition specialist providing processed imagery; Bath University with expertise in cloud prediction algorithms."