Predicting and Meeting Food Bank needs

新冠肺炎创造了对食品银行服务的需求激增，但同时也限制了它们的帮助能力。食品银行提供无价的当地社区服务：提供食品援助；充当其他当地社区服务的渠道；就可能的福利待遇提供建议，最重要的是提供人情味--能够坐下来喝杯茶，交谈和被倾听。所有这些服务都为社会上那些需要食物银行帮助的人的社会和心理健康提供服务。然而，当他们最需要帮助的时候，社会距离和经济冲击给食物银行带来了巨大的压力。许多当地的捐赠点，如礼拜场所或商店的捐赠点都已关闭。那些绝望的人无法获得或使用超市的捐赠点。当购买罐头食品受到限制以确保公平获得时，货币捐赠的效用有限。收到的捐款数量的不确定性反过来限制了食品银行在需求不断增加的情况下，在任何给定的一周内评估他们能够提供多少食品援助包裹的能力。该项目将使用数据科学预测和预测建模技术，使食品银行能够更准确地评估当地社区的预测需求和预期的捐赠供应。利用这一点，粮食银行将能够在库存变得关键之前，向其支持者提出特定短缺物品的知情请求；与所在地区的其他粮食援助组织合作，确保供应的广泛性。总体结果将是：降低收到捐款的波动性；增加粮食银行支持当地家庭的能力；提高当地社区对食品银行的认识，关键是减少食品银行志愿者的规划时间，这样他们就有更多的时间来关注食品银行的关键人文方面--由了解并希望提供帮助的人倾听。“扩大影响”的效果将使我们能够在整个冬季继续与我们的伙伴食品银行合作，完善对他们最有利的支持，并改善他们希望的信息最有益地呈现和获取的方式。它将使所有相关各方能够评估预测所产生的影响，以帮助粮食银行在社区一级规划变化，以便它们能够继续帮助那些需要帮助的人。

COVID-19 has created a surge in demand for the services of food banks yet at the same time limited their ability to help. Food banks offer invaluable local community services: providing food aid; acting as a conduit to other local community services; advising on possible benefit entitlement and crucially offering the human touch -- the ability to sit and have a cup of tea, to talk and be heard. All of these services social and mental health of those in the community who need the help of food banks.Yet when they are needed most, social distancing and shocks to the economy places a huge strain on food banks. Many local donation points, such as those at places of worship or in shops have been closed. Donation points at supermarkets are unavailable or used by those in desperation. Monetary donations have limited utility when the purchasing of tinned food is limited to ensure fair access. The uncertainty in the volume of donations received in turn limits a food bank's ability to assess how many food aid packages they will be able to provide in any givenweek, at a time when the need is increasing.This project will use data science forecasting and predictive modelling techniques, to enable food banks to more accurately assess predicted demand from the local community alongside expected supply of donations. Using this, the food banks will be able to make informed requests to their supporters for specific shortage items before stock becomes critical; work with other food aid organisations in their area to ensure breadth of supplies.The overall result will be to: reduce the volatility in donations received; increase capacity for the food banks to support local families; raise awareness of the food banks in the local community and crucially reduce the planning time for volunteers at food banks so they have more time for the critical human aspects of food banks -- a listening ear by someone who understands and wants to help.The effects of the “extension for Impact” will be to enable us to continue working with our partner food banks throughout the winter months to refine the support that is of most benefit to them and improve the way in which the information they would like is most beneficially presented and accessed. It will enable all involved to assess the impact to which the predictions made help the foodbanks plan for changes at a community level so that they can continue to help those in need.