Unpaid Debts: Rethinking the Causes and Consequences of Sovereign Default

历史上，很多国家都未能按时或全额偿还债务。然而，关于这种“主权违约”的现有研究通常基于定量数据，这些数据基于对国家经济利益的理性计算，假设了短期原因和后果。奇怪的是，学者和政策制定者并没有采用定性的方法来详细或背景地分析这些事件。因此，主权违约的长期和更广泛的原因和后果仍然被忽视，这扭曲了学术分析，误导了寻求避免未偿还债务的政府。我的项目采用历史和案例研究的方法来回答两个问题。首先，主权违约的长期和更广泛的原因和后果是什么？第二，在多大程度上可以概括历史上未偿债务的非经济原因？因此，研究项目分为两部分。首先，我将出版一本书，首次对一场主权违约进行历史分析——即英国在1933年后未能偿还美国42亿美元的战争贷款——以提供迄今为止任何未偿还债务的最细致入微的描述。我将利用两国60年来的档案资料，并以较早的一项试点研究为基础，分析从第一次世界大战结束到1978年英国重返纽约债券市场的这段时间。我将特别关注政治、外交和社会变量，努力表明，对短期经济衡量的关注是对违约的不完整、有时甚至是误导性的解释。我将通过关注与国家财政有关的制度变化、跨大西洋关系关键领域的变化以及各国对债务态度的转变，来记录两国的违约情况。其次，我将以我的档案研究为基础，在一份领先的期刊上发表一篇文章，建立并检验两种对主要经济大国主权违约的新颖且可概括的解释。国际关系和经济学文献中的共识观点侧重于对国家经济利益的理性计算，这是不完整的，因为违约可以服务于其他目标。违约有时反映了国内政治利益或国家身份的转变。我将利用二手资料和已发表的数据来考察当时的决策，通过考察20世纪主要经济大国未能偿还债务的案例研究来检验我的观点。这些案例研究还将检验我的假设，即各国倾向于淡化违约的长期和广泛后果。出于两个原因，现在是进行此类研究的合适时机。首先，它与当代有关债务的辩论高度相关。我的工作将为政策制定者的成本效益计算提供参考，无论他们是在考虑贷款、借款还是违约。我计划在网上和可搜索的数据存储库中共享关键档案数据，以确保金融分析师能够轻松访问原始数据，为自己的工作提供信息。其次，该项目恰逢第一次世界大战结束一百周年，因此受益于人们对第一次世界大战的后果和更广泛的战争债务日益增长的兴趣。基于这种日益高涨的兴趣，我将鼓励政策制定者、学者和公众重新思考主权违约的正统观念。我的研究项目将连接人文和社会科学领域的学者，使我成为主权违约跨学科研究的领导者。然后，我将通过引导研究转向更广泛的变量和多种方法，寻求重置国际研究议程。AHRC奖学金可以让我组织国际活动，获得项目管理经验，扩大我的专业网络，从而提高我的领导能力。因此，奖学金将扩大项目的影响，并支持我的职业发展。

Countries have failed to repay their debts on time or in full throughout history. Existing research concerning such 'sovereign defaults' is typically based on quantitative data, however, which assumes short-term causes and consequences based on rational calculations of states' economic interests. Curiously, scholars and policymakers have not adopted qualitative methods to analyse such events in detail or context. As such, the longer-term and wider-ranging causes and consequences of sovereign default remain neglected, which distorts academic analysis and misleads governments seeking to avoid unpaid debts. My project adopts historical and case study methods to answer two questions. First, what are the longer-term and wider-ranging causes and consequences of sovereign default? Second, to what extent is it possible to generalize the non-economic causes of unpaid debts across history?The research project consequently divides into two parts. First, I will produce a book that presents the first historical analysis of one sovereign default--namely, the UK's failure to repay $4.2bn of war loans from America after 1933--to provide the most nuanced account of any unpaid debt to date. Drawing on six decades of archival material in both countries, and building on an earlier pilot-study, I will analyse the period from the end of World War I to the UK's return to the New York bond market in 1978. I will pay particular attention to political, diplomatic and social variables, in an effort to show that a focus on short-term economic measurements provides an incomplete and sometimes misleading account of default. I will document the default for both states by focusing on institutional changes concerning national finances, variations in key areas of transatlantic relations, and shifting national attitudes towards debt.Second, I will build on my archival research to produce an article in a leading journal that establishes and tests two novel and generalizable explanations for sovereign default by major economic powers. The consensus view within the International Relations and Economics literatures, which focus on rational calculations of a state's economic interests, is incomplete because default can serve other objectives. Defaults sometimes reflect domestic-political interests or shifts in national identities. Using secondary sources and published data to examine decision-making at the time, I will test my claims by examining case studies across the twentieth century where major economic powers failed to pay their debts. These case studies will also test my assumption that states tend to downplay the longer and wider consequences of default.It is an opportune time to conduct such research for two reasons. First, it is highly relevant to contemporary debates about debt. My work will inform the cost-benefit calculations of policymakers, whether they are considering lending, borrowing or defaulting. I plan to share key archival data in online and searchable data repositories to ensure that financial analysts have easy access to raw data to inform their own work. Second, the project coincides with the centenary of the end of WW1, thereby benefiting from growing interest in the consequences of the Great War and war debts more broadly. Building on this rising interest, I will encourage policymakers, scholars, and the public to rethink the orthodoxies of sovereign default. My research project will connect scholars in the humanities and social sciences, establishing me as a leader in the interdisciplinary study of sovereign default. I will then seek to reset the international research agenda by guiding research towards a wider range of variables and multiple methodologies. An AHRC fellowship would develop my leadership skills by allowing me to organise international events, gain project management experience, and expand my professional network. The fellowship would thus amplify the project's impact and support my career development.