RETIREMENT DECISION-MAKING: DETERMINANTS OF MIGRATION

本提案描述了跨学科研究的继续。 研究退休移民决策的项目。所采用的方法 这个项目是对退休前年龄组的受访者进行抽样；询问 每个受访者评估一系列假想的迁徙地点 通过实验设计的地理、经济、 和社会学因素；并推导出每个因素的迁移决策模型 答辩人。然后这些模型被用来更好地理解退休 移民决策过程和预测退休移民流量。 到目前为止的结果涉及到特定的偏好的分布 327名55岁爱荷华州人的地理属性调查--。当前 目前的工作集中在利用这些结果来推导仿真模型 用于预测移民流动。这些预测将与 特定于年龄的实际迁移数据何时可从 1980年的人口普查。 提案续订的主要目标包括：1) 检查退休决策如何先于迁移决策 受社会保障福利等经济因素的影响；2)审查 犯罪率等特定地点因素如何影响移民决策；3) 考察社会经济因素对退休移民的影响 通过包括比过去更异质(多态)的样本进行决策 在早期研究阶段使用；4)比较外部效度 预测移民流量的几种替代技术 退休人员。

This proposal describes the continuation of an interdisciplinary research program studying retirement migration decisions. The approach adopted for this project is to sample respondents from the preretirement age group; ask each respondent to evaluate a series of hypothetical migration sites described by experimentally designed combinations of geographic, economic, and sociological factors; and derive a migration decision model for each respondent. These models are then used to better understand the retirement migration decision process and to forecast retirement migration flows. Results to date concern the distribution of preferences for specific locational attributes among a sample of 327 Iowans aged 55-64. Current work is concentrating on using these results to derive simulation models for forecasting migration flows. These forecasts are to be compared with actual age-specific migration data when these data become available from the 1980 census. Primary goals of the proposal continuation include the following: 1) examine how retirement decisions preceding migration decisions are influenced by economic factors such as social security benefits; 2) examine how placespecific factors such as crime rate affect migration decisions; 3) examine the influences of socioeconomic factors on retirement migration decisions by including a more heterogenous (multi-state) sample than had been used in the earlier research phase; 4) compare the external validity of several alternative techniques for forecasting the migration flows of retired persons.