MOLECULAR EPIDEMIOLOGY OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA

自流感在2000年造成最大的大流行以来， 现代历史上造成约2000万人死亡， 超过了第一次世界大战或其后任何一次世界大战中的死亡人数 人为或自然灾害。世界早该迎来一场新的大流行病， 流感。如何预防或控制此类事件？今天的 技术不允许生产和分发疫苗， 规模能够做的不仅仅是削弱流感的影响， 世界上的几个地区。一个更现实的办法是防止 出现大流行性流感病毒。 有越来越多的证据表明，新的大流行菌株 的流感病毒起源于水生病毒之间的基因重配 鸟类和人类。也有证据表明这种重组 发生在东南亚的家猪身上;可能在《人民日报》上 中华民国拟议研究的长期目标是 了解导致疾病起源的流行病学事件， 中国的人类流感大流行。利用在《公约》中获得的知识， 目前授予期，聚合酶基因（PBI）目前在人类 “亚洲-1957”和“香港-1968”的大流行毒株来自不同的 禽源，我们提出以下具体目标：1.以确定 哪些禽类宿主是人类流感基因的来源 流行病2.检验猪是“混合容器”的假设 流感病毒的基因。和3.以确定是否有证据表明 早期人类流感病毒在自然界中的持续存在。 来自含有禽流感病毒和/或 人类基因将通过基因序列分析建立， 基因产物的抗原性分析。的地理分布 将在病毒谱系中建立具有混合基因组的流感病毒 这是“旧”和“新”世界以及中国南北方所独有的。的 重要的是确定流感在高水平地区爆发的频率， 中国的风险地区与禽流感和猪流感的传播有关 将流感病毒基因导入人类菌株。通过更好地了解 流感的流行病学，我们也许能够特别地改变 农业实践允许动物和 人类流感病毒，并防止人类大流行的出现。

It is now over 70 years since influenza caused the greatest pandemic in modern history resulting in approximately 20 million fatalities, a number that exceeded all those killed in the First World War or in any subsequent man-made or natural disasters. The world is overdue for a new pandemic of influenza. What can be done to prevent or control such an event? Today's technology does not permit production and distribution of vaccine on a scale capable of doing more than blunting the impact of influenza in very few regions of the world. A more realistic approach would be to prevent the appearance of a pandemic influenza virus. There is an ever increasing body of evidence that the new pandemic strains of influenza originate by genetic reassortment between viruses in aquatic birds and those in humans. There is also evidence that this reassortment takes place in domestic pigs in Southeast Asia; probably in The People's Republic of China. The long-term goal of the proposed research is to understand the epidemiological events that result in the origin of pandemics of human influenza in China. Utilizing knowledge gained in the current granting period that the polymerase gene (PBI) present in the human pandemic strains of "Asia-1957" and "Hong Kong-1968" came from different avian sources, we propose the following specific aims: 1. To determine which avian reservoirs are the source of influenza genes in human pandemics. 2. To examine the hypothesis that pigs are the "mixing vessels" of influenza virus genes. and 3. To establish if there is evidence for persistence of earlier human influenza virus in nature. The prevalence of influenza viruses from pigs that contain avian and/or human genes will be established by sequence analysis of the genes and antigenic analysis of the gene products. The geographical distribution of influenza viruses with mixed genomes will be established in virus lineages unique to the "old' and "new' world and in the north and south of China. Of great importance will be determining how often influenza outbreaks in high risk areas of China are associated with the transmission of avian and swine influenza virus genes into human strains. By better understanding the epidemiology of influenza, we may be able to specifically alter agricultural practices which allow the genetic interaction of animal and human influenza viruses and prevent the appearance of a human pandemic.