IMULATION OF IV DRUG INTERVENTIONS ON HIV INFECTIONS &

拟议研究的主要目标是：修订我们的模型 以前已开发为结合最新的知识进展 HIV/AIDS的流行病学及两种药物引起的变化 预防/治疗和行为改变；使用该模式探索和 扩大我们对艾滋病毒/艾滋病自然历史的了解，特别是 强调建立静脉注射吸毒者的疾病进展率；并执行 一套政策分析，将使艾滋病毒预防方法 在药物治疗和/或艾滋病毒咨询方案的背景下进行评估。 最近抗病毒药物和预防措施的使用改变了 孵化和生存函数--任何模型的关键参数 将用于预测艾滋病毒和艾滋病的流行情况。使用以下数据 已经可以从国家过敏研究所获得 艾滋病临床试验协调下的传染病(NIAID) 中心项目，我们建议修改这些参数，并使短期 HIV血清阳性率和艾滋病发病率的预测。 另外两个数据来源是NIDA的艾滋病目标外展计划和 疾病预防控制中心的艾滋病咨询和治疗评估研究。项目下的干预措施 这些计划将产生有关吸毒行为和性行为变化的数据 练习。这些变化与静脉注射药物尤其相关。 施虐者。当药物滥用行为的详细信息提供给修订后的 模型，各种干预策略对当前的影响 将对表皮进行评估。 RTI开发的艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行模型包括 特征：代表所有主要风险组；风险组大小 是基于艾滋病发病率数据，该数据解释了危险行为，因此 只估计那些有高危行为的人；以及导致 感染被视为内生模型参数，因此 风险群体行为是隐式测量的。因此，该模型避免了 在文献中报道的许多模型的陷阱是为了 接触率是一个已知的外生参数。

The major objectives of the proposed research are to: revise the model we have previously developed to incorporate recent advances in knowledge of the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS and changes introduced by both drug prophylaxis/treatment and behavioral change; use the model to explore and expand our understanding of the natural history of HIV/AIDS with particular emphasis on establishing rate of disease progression in IVDUs; and perform a set of policy analyses that would allow HIV prevention approaches to be evaluated in the context of drug treatment and/or HIV counseling programs. Recent use of antivirals and prophylactic measures have altered the incubation and survival functions--crucial parameters for any model that will be used for forecasting HIV and AIDS prevalence. Using data which have become available from the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) under the AIDS Clinical Trials Coordinating Center project, we propose to revise these parameters and make short-term forecasts of HIV seroprevalence and AIDS incidence. Two other sources of data are NIDA's AIDS Targeted Outreach Program and CDC's HIV counseling and Treatment Evaluation Study. Interventions under these program will yield data on changes in drug-use behavior and sexual practices. These changes are especially relevant for intravenous drug abusers. When details on drug abuse behavior are supplied to the revised model, the effect of various intervention strategies on the current epidermic will be evaluated. The HIV/AIDS prevalence model developed by RTI includes the following characteristics: all primary risk groups are represented; risk group size is based on AIDS incidence data that accounts for risk behaviors, thereby estimating only those with high risk behaviors; and contacts that result in infection are treated as endogenous model parameters so that changes in risk group behavior are implicitly measured. As a result, the model avoids the pitfalls of many of the models reported in the literature that treat contact rate a known exogenous parameters.