Modelling to inform interventions during Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks in Great Britain

禽流感是一种传染性很强的疾病，既影响野鸟，也影响家禽。由于这种疾病，在英国（GB）和世界各地的家禽业都遭受了巨大的经济损失。2021-22年的疫情是英国历史上最大的疫情，预计季节性疫情将继续发生。在一系列疾病爆发期间，越来越多地使用数学模型来为未来情景提供信息，并指导控制措施。该项目涉及与英国政府动植物卫生署（APHA）合作，开发一个全国范围的禽流感传播数学模型。它建立在我们之前在2021-22年爆发期间与APHA合作的基础上，我们花了六周时间开发了一个初步的传播模型，以预测病毒的未来传播并指导控制干预措施。在目前的项目中，我们将建立在我们以前的快速反应研究的基础上，利用这个项目的较长时间尺度来开发一个灵活的建模框架，具有高水平的严谨性。这包括将传播模型的参数拟合到一系列数据源，并考虑GB内家禽养殖场之间的传播和其他地方的感染输入。通过与APHA密切合作，我们将确保该模型可以在APHA计算机系统上运行，以便政策顾问使用该模型指导未来疫情的干预措施。一旦我们开发了传播模型，我们将使用它来探索在GB未来疫情期间可能应用的一系列不同控制干预措施的有效性。我们与APHA合作的一个好处是，我们能够使用该模型来测试可以有效部署的实际战略。我们还将开发一个用户友好的软件工具和图形用户界面的基础上的模型，允许用户改变模型参数本身和测试不同的控制干预，而不需要专业知识的计算代码。为了鼓励其他人使用该软件，我们将进行疫情模拟演习，向政策顾问提供模拟疫情数据，然后他们将使用该工具确定最佳干预措施。以前也对一系列其他牲畜疾病进行过类似的演习。这项工作将在该项目第三年开始时进行，以便将任何反馈纳入模型和软件工具。我们还将为其他研究人员举办为期两天的研讨会，介绍建模框架和软件工具，并演示其使用方法。总之，该项目将涉及开发一个国家流行病学建模资源，可用于在GB未来爆发禽流感时制定控制措施。它补充了现有的禽流感研究，提供了一个工具，供政策顾问在可预见的未来用来确定爆发期间的最佳干预措施。

Avian influenza is a highly contagious disease, affecting both wild birds and domestic poultry. The poultry industry suffers substantial economic losses due to this disease, both in Great Britain (GB) and around the world. The 2021-22 outbreak in GB has been the largest in the country's history, and seasonal outbreaks are expected to continue to occur.Mathematical models are increasingly used during outbreaks of a range of diseases to inform future scenarios and to guide control measures. This project involves developing a national-scale mathematical model of avian influenza transmission around GB, in collaboration with the UK Government's Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). It builds on our previous work with APHA during the 2021-22 outbreak, in which we spent six weeks developing a preliminary transmission model to project future spread of the virus and to guide control interventions. In the current project, we will build on our previous rapid-response research, taking advantage of the longer timescale of this project to develop a flexible modelling framework with a high level of rigour. This includes fitting the parameters of the transmission model to a range of data sources, and accounting for both transmission between poultry premises within GB and importations of infection from elsewhere. By working closely with APHA, we will ensure that the model can be run on APHA computer systems, permitting its use by policy advisors to guide interventions in future outbreaks.Once we have developed the transmission model, we will use it to explore the effectiveness of a range of different control interventions that could be applied during future outbreaks in GB. A benefit of our collaboration with APHA is that we are in a position to use the model to test practical strategies that could be deployed effectively. We will also develop a user-friendly software tool and Graphical User Interface based on the model, allowing the user to change model parameters themselves and test different control interventions without requiring specialist knowledge about the computing code. To encourage others to use the software, we will run an outbreak simulation exercise in which we will provide simulated outbreak data to policy advisors, who will then use the tool to determine optimal interventions. Similar exercises have been conducted before for a range of other livestock diseases. This exercise will be conducted at the start of the third year of this project, enabling any feedback to be incorporated into the model and software tool. We will also run a two-day workshop for other researchers in which we describe the modelling framework and software tool, and demonstrate their use.In summary, this project will involve the development of a national epidemiological modelling resource that can be used to plan control measures during future avian influenza outbreaks in GB. It complements existing research on avian influenza by providing a tool that will be used by policy advisors for the foreseeable future to determine optimal interventions during outbreaks.