Using Control Theory to Design Sustainable Policies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty

该项目将应用现代鲁棒控制理论的概念来开发算法，以确定最佳政策，既实现可持续的二氧化碳（和其他温室气体）排放水平，又最大限度地减少对经济的影响，而且还明确解决与未来排放预测相关的高度不确定性。最优政策的目的是调整各种因素，如能源生产方法的组合以及减少住房、工业和交通排放的政策，以实现排放率，使英国能够实现其排放目标，同时最大限度地实现以贴现GDP衡量的经济增长。确定最佳政策的一个关键困难是处理与政策变化对二氧化碳排放率的影响相关的不确定性。《斯特恩报告》的主要结论之一是，必须立即实施稳定二氧化碳排放的政策，不可能推迟决策，直到有不确定性较小的模型可用。如果这一结论被接受（事实上，即使它不是）模型的不确定性必须纳入这些政策的设计的一个组成部分。目前，经济学家无法在存在不确定性的情况下找到最佳政策，大多数现有的经济模型通过重复运行假设情景来预测一系列参数值的结果来解决模型的不确定性。该项目将利用稳健控制理论的概念开发工具，将不确定性直接纳入最佳排放政策的设计;这些工具随后可应用于其他现有模型。在设计中包含不确定性，量化了与排放政策相关的风险，这使得政策制定者和二氧化碳排放者能够将风险纳入其战略计划。这些工具将在ECCO（资本创造选项的演变）模型上实施，该模型描述了英国经济排放的二氧化碳水平的动态演变。与许多其他经济模型不同，该模型基于质量和能量平衡的物理原理，用于推导经济措施。

This project will apply concepts from modern robust control theory to develop algorithms for determining the optimal policy that both achieves sustainable levels of emissions of CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) and minimises the impact on the economy, but also explicitly addresses the high levels of uncertainty associated with predictions of future emissions. The aim of the optimal policy is to adjust factors such as the mix of energy generation methods and policies for reducing emissions from housing, industry and transport, in order to achieve a rate of emissions that will allow the UK to achieve its emissions targets while maximising economic growth as measured by discounted GDP. A key difficulty in determining the optimal policy is handling the uncertainty associated with the effect that the policy changes will have on the rate at which is CO2 emitted. One of the main conclusions of the Stern Review is that policies for stabilisation of CO2 emissions have to be implemented immediately and it is not possible to delay decisions until models with less uncertainty become available. If this conclusion is accepted (and indeed even if it is not) model uncertainty has to be incorporated as an integral part of the design of these policies. Currently, economists are unable to find optimal policies in the presence of uncertainty and most existing economic models address model uncertainty by running repeated what if scenarios to predict the outcome for a range of parameter values. This project will use concepts from robust control theory to develop tools for incorporating uncertainty directly into the design of the optimal emissions policy; the tools can then be applied to other existing models. Including uncertainty within the design quantifies the risk associated with the emissions policy, which allows policy makers and emitters of CO2 to incorporate risk within their strategic plans. The tools will be implemented on the ECCO (Evolution of Capital Creation Options) model that describes the dynamic evolution of CO2 levels emitted by UK economy. Unlike many other economic models, this model is based on the physical principles of mass and energy balances, which are used to derive economic measures.