People, Energy and Buildings: Distribution, Diversity and Dynamics (PEB:D3)

为了使英国能够实现具有法律约束力的碳排放目标，并建立一个有弹性和安全的能源体系，未来几十年需要看到一个历史性的转变：能源供应几乎完全脱碳，开发新的供热系统，并全面翻新住房储备。这一转变的关键要素包括：-转向以电力为主的供热系统，基于依赖于风能和核能等较不可控的发电来源的脱碳电网。这将对供应商造成相当大的压力，迫使他们更好地了解和控制需求。-由于政策或市场力量的原因，能源价格大幅上涨，如果没有其他干预措施，这将大大增加燃料贫困的程度。转向资本密集度更高的发电形式，将把能源账单的重点从季度能源转移到电力需求峰值。多样性将是确定能源系统规模和运行的一个关键因素，这取决于个别家庭需求高峰时间的变化性。-大规模翻新，旨在显著减少住宅的热损失。为了成功地管理这一过渡，我们必须迅速更好地了解人类因素(社会、经济、行为)、居住新技术和新能源之间的相互作用。现有的能源使用行为模型没有捕捉到能源使用行为的可变性，而是依赖于平均值。最近的工作已经开始揭示不同居住者群体之间的深刻差异，例如，他们倾向于将提高能效的好处视为更高的舒适度，而不是减少能源需求(回收)。除非在模型中明确说明这些差异，否则政策和投资决策可能会被不适当地瞄准。住房存量模型的使用可能会加剧这种情况，这些模型只对需求的时间变化提供了最原始的洞察，而对需求和供应的每小时相互作用没有提供任何信息，而需求和供应的相互作用将对以成本效益管理大量可再生能源和核能发电至关重要。显然，需要新的工具和方法。这项提议旨在通过汇聚一个由社会科学家、建筑科学家和能源系统建模师组成的国际多学科团队来开发这种工具，他们将在一个协作的跨学科分析、评价和解释框架内工作，并利用新的数据来源来建立新颖和雄心勃勃的、动态的供需模型。从这项工作中，我们期待着以下创新：1.基于新获得的数据集和新的分析方法，对能源消费行为的复杂性和变异性有了新的见解。2.开发新的模型，首次能够在动态的每小时供需系统模型中将行为、已建立的库存和能源供应连贯地联系起来。发展战略情景，通过批判性分析、评估和解释的跨学科过程，从模型中提取洞察力，并明确其实际影响和应用。所有这些都将使我们能够解决以下问题。内部温度是如何变化的？房屋能效的提高和居住者行为是如何相互作用的？收回的真正影响是什么？英国如何才能将翻新住房存量和更新能源供应系统的总成本降至最低？这将如何影响政府政策、能源供应公司的商业战略以及那些参与住宅管理和翻新的公司？

To enable the UK to meet legally binding carbon targets and establish a resilient and secure energy system, the coming decades need to see an historic transition: the almost complete decarbonisation of energy supply, the development of a new heat supply system and the comprehensive refurbishment of the housing stock.Key elements in this transition include: - A shift to a largely-electric heat supply system, based on a decarbonised grid reliant on less controllable sources of generation such as wind and nuclear. This will produce considerable pressure on suppliers to better understand and control demand.- Significant increases in energy price, either as a result of policy or of market forces, which without other interventions will significantly increase levels of fuel poverty. Shifts to more capital intensive forms of generation will move the focus of energy bills from quarterly energy to peak power demand. Diversity, which depends on the variability of the timing of peak demands for individual households, will be a crucial factor in sizing and operating energy systems. - Large-scale renovation aimed at significantly reducing heat loss of dwellings. This will both require and induce profound impacts in occupant behaviour which need to be understood.To manage this transition successfully we must rapidly achieve a better understanding of the interplay between human factors (social, economic, behavioural), new technologies for dwellings, and new sources of energy. Existing models of energy-using behaviour do not capture the variability of energy using behaviours, instead relying on averages. Recent work has begun to reveal profound differences between different groups of occupants for example in their tendency to take benefits of energy efficiency improvements as higher comfort rather than a reduction in energy demand (take-back). Unless these differences are made explicit in models, policies and investment decisions are likely to be targeted inappropriately. This is likely to be compounded by use of models of the housing stock that provide only the crudest insight into the temporal variation of demand and none into the hourly interplay of demand and supply that will be critical to the cost-effective management of large tranches of renewable and nuclear generation. It is clear that new tools and approaches are needed.This proposal aims to develop such tools by bringing together an international multi-disciplinary team of social scientists, building scientists and energy systems modellers who will work within a collaborative interdisciplinary analysis, evaluation and interpretation framework and draw on new sources of data to build novel and ambitious, dynamic demand-supply models. This is a combination rarely before applied to this sector and never at this scale.From this work, we anticipate the following innovations: 1. New insights into the complexity and variability of energy consuming behaviour based on newly available data sets and novel analytical approaches. 2. Development of new models making it possible for the first time to coherently link behaviour, the built stock and the energy supply in dynamic, hourly demand-supply system models.3. Development of strategic scenarios drawing out the insights from the models and making explicit their practical implications and application, through an interdisciplinary process of critical analysis, evaluation and interpretation.All of this will enable us to address the following questions. How are internal temperatures changing? How do energy efficiency improvements in houses and occupant behaviour interact? What is the real impact of take-back? How can the UK minimise the combined costs of renovating the housing stock and renewing energy supply systems? How should this affect government policy, the business strategies of energy supply companies and those involved in the management and renovation of dwellings?