Sustainable Transport Evidence and modelling Paradigms: Cohort Household Analysis to support New Goals in Engineering design (STEP-CHANGE)

人们普遍认为，有必要推动朝着更可持续的城市环境逐步转变，特别是在交通和旅行方面，我们将重点关注这一点。虽然许多基于模型的案头研究旨在模拟这种环境，作为决策支持工具的一部分，但它们采用了许多未经证实的假设性假设，特别是在主要以运输为重点的干预措施可能对基础设施的行为和有效性产生影响的方式上。从城市环境的物理性质和构成以及人们选择的行动和行为方式来看，很少有真正的证据表明什么有效，什么可以用来促进这种变化。这项为期5年的提案将以利兹大学交通研究所（ITS）和曼彻斯特大学社会文化变革研究中心（CRESC）的EPSRC和esrc支持的主要活动的势头为基础，以填补这一证据空白，为转型未来的建模提供一个基于经验的框架。该项目旨在利用新的数据来源、分析这些不同数据的方法创新、开发新的规划实践和程序以及支持建模工具，逐步改变当前的知识和实践。为此，它将制定2050年城市未来的愿景，既能抵御外部变化，又具有可持续性。作为该项目的一部分，所开发的知识和程序将为规划人员和其他参与地方和国家层面城市交通决策的人员提供基础，使他们能够开始实施必要的变革，以实现2050年的弹性和可持续愿景。拟议的研究是雄心勃勃和新颖的。我们将对家庭进行第一次主要是定性的纵向小组研究，重点是他们的交通活动，特别是深入研究他们为什么做某些事情以及如何可能带来变化的问题。这项工作将辅以对较长时期的历史资料的研究，利用各种运输和非运输数据库的现有资料，并结合两个研究领域中亲身经历变化的规划人员和其他人员的证词。将这些不同的数据源整合在一起的任务将是创新的，并寻求有效地探索以多种不同方式整合这些材料的方法，这些方法认识到围绕交通的决策和实践的复杂性，并使我们能够理解为什么会发生阶梯式变化。我们将利用这些分析的结果来进行更多的理论工作，首先考虑新的规划程序和实践的潜力，其次考虑新的建模工具，这些工具将为到2050年实现可持续和有弹性的城市未来的交通运输提供必要的步骤变化。

There is an accepted need to promote step changes towards more sustainable urban environments, notably in transport and travel, which we will focus on. While many model-based desk-studies have aimed to simulate such environments as part of a decision support tool, they adopt many unvalidated, hypothetical assumptions, particularly in the way that major transport focused interventions might impact on both behaviour and the effectiveness of the infrastructure. There is very little real evidence of what works and what can be used to promote such changes, deriving from either the physical nature and make-up of urban environments and in the way that people choose to act and behave. This 5 year proposal will build on the momentum of major EPSRC- and ESRC-supported activity at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS) at the University of Leeds and the Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change (CRESC) at the University of Manchester in order to fill this evidence gap, providing an empirically grounded frame for the modelling of transformational futures.The project seeks to produce a step change in current knowledge and practice using a mix of new data sources, methodological innovation in analysis of this diverse data, development of new planning practices and procedures and supporting modelling tools. To this end it will develop visions of urban futures of 2050 which are both resilient to external change and sustainable. The knowledge and procedures developed as part of this project will provide a foundation upon which planners and others involved in decision-making in relation to urban transport, at both local and national levels, can start to put in place the necessary changes to achieve the resilient and sustainable visions of 2050.The proposed research is ambitious and novel. We will undertake the first largely qualitative longitudinal panel study of households which focuses on their transport activity, in particular delving into questions of why they do certain things and how change might be brought about. This work will be complemented by study of historical information over longer periods of time, making use of available information from a variety of transport and non-transport databases, coupled with testimony from planners and others in two study areas who have experienced changes first hand. The task of bringing these diverse data sources together will be innovative and seek to effectively explore ways of integrating these materials in a number of different ways which recognise the complexity of decisions and practices around transport and allow us to draw some understanding of why step changes occur. We will use the results of these analyses to feed into more theoretical work which will consider firstly the potential for new planning procedures and practice and secondly new modelling tools which provide the means to help achieve the step changes necessary in transport for sustainable and resilient urban futures by 2050.