THE LAYPERSON AS REVISIONIST HISTORIAN

这项研究旨在更好地理解社会判断是如何 系统地受到某些倾向的影响，立即或 回顾过去，我们对事件的解释和评估。 第一 一组研究审查了正在进行的和立即修订的结果 各种赌博活动中的信息被视为重要的 决定人们不幸坚持在众多的赌博 努力 这项工作扩展了过去的研究，表明赌徒 不公平地评估结果;相反，成功往往是 容易接受的面值，而失败的解释了， 打折了 本研究进一步探讨了这种偏颇的评价 通过改变不同类型的材料的性质和可用性， 结果信息，并检查其对受试者信心的影响 并愿意继续下注 最终，预计 这项研究将导致程序的发展， 人们对不正常行为模式的坚持。 第二组研究探讨了系统地修订 归因判断产生的增加“心理 距离”。 特别是，这项工作审查的增加， 由于时间的推移和二手的心理距离 事件的知识。 这项工作的重点是比较 立即或延迟后做出的归因判断， 由亲眼目睹某些事件的受试者做出的归因， 是由那些只从别人那里听说过这件事的实验对象做出的。 是 预期随着心理距离的增加，受试者将看到 他们自己和其他人的行为更加一致， 个人倾向的功能。 第三组研究试图解释一种普遍的趋势， 积极地修正我们对过去决定和行动方针的评价。 这种“回顾性乐观”将通过比较 在民意调查之前和之后， 政府决策的智慧。

This research seeks to better understand how social judgments are systematically affected by certain tendencies to revise, immediately or retrospectively, our interpretations and evaluations of events. The first set of studies examines the ongoing and immediate revision of outcome information in various gambling activities that is seen as an important determinant of people's unfortunate persistence in numerous gambling endeavors. This work expands on past research demonstrating that gamblers do not evaluate outcomes evenhandely; instead, successes tend to be readily accepted at face value, whereas failures are explained away and discounted. The present research further examines this biased evaluation process by varying the nature and availability of different types of outcome information and examining their effects on subjects' confidence and willingness to continue betting. Ultimately, it is anticipated that this research will lead to the development of procedures that will reduce people's persistence in patterns of dysfunctional behavior. The second set of studies explores the systematic revision of attributional judgments produced by increases in "psychological distance". In particular, this work examines the increase in psychological distance due to the passage of time and the secondhand knowledge of events. The focus of this work involves comparing attributional judgments made immediately or after a delay and comparing attributions made by subjects who witness some event firsthand with those made by subjects who only hear about that event from someone else. It is expected that with increased psychological distance subjects will see their own and other people's behavior as more consistent and more a function of personal dispositions. The third set of studies attempts to explicate a pervasive tendency to favorably revise our assessments of past decisions and courses of action. This "retrospective optimism" will be examined through a comparision of before and after opinion polls concerning the public's assessment of the wisdom of various government policy decisions.