AMBIGUITY RESOLUTION & PERCEPTIONS OF SOCIAL CONSENSUS

这项提案要求支持旨在审查原因的研究 和错误信念的后果。一些 建议的研究继续早期的工作对随机的误解， 序列和有偏见的选择和评估的信息。然而，在这方面， 这项建议的核心是研究人们如何 错误的信念是由人们倾向于有一个 夸大别人的想法和行为的程度， 他们会去的而且更具体地说，这项研究旨在探索迄今为止 被忽视的机制可能是这种"虚假共识"效应的基础， 人们倾向于相信他们自己的信仰，行为， 意见比较普遍。这种机制集中在固有的 大多数信仰目标的模糊性。例如，当试图评估 在多大程度上，其他人分享一个人对整体健康的信念， 首先必须确定"全面健康"一词的确切含义。等 不同的人对术语的解释可能完全不同， 应该清楚的是，我们解释这些术语的确切方式不会 我们只决定我们自己的反应，但会对我们施加平行的影响。 我们对他人反应的估计。因为人们不懂得欣赏 在多大程度上，其他人可能会"模仿"同一对象相当 不同的是，他们的共识估计未能充分考虑到一个 潜在分歧的重要来源。一系列实验室 实验将研究这种联系过程如何引导人们形成 夸大了他们自己的信仰，观点和 行为，以及这种对共识的扭曲看法如何有助于支持 错误的信仰最终，这项研究应该会带来一个更好的 了解扭曲判断的原因和治疗方法， 错误的决定和错误的信念

This proposal requests support for research designed to examine the causes and consequences of questionable and erroneous beliefs. Some of the proposed studies continue earlier work on the misperception of random sequences and the biased selection and evaluation of information. However, the core of this proposal consists of research that examines how people's erroneous beliefs are bolstered by a tendency for people to have an inflated sense of the extent to which others think and act the way that they do. More specifically, this research seeks to explore a heretofore neglected mechanism that may underlie this "false consensus" effect, or the tendency for people to believe that their own beliefs, actions, and opinions are relatively common. This mechanism centers on the inherent ambiguity of most targets of belief. For example, when trying to assess the extent to which other people share one's belief in holistic health, one must first determine exactly what the term "holistic health" means. Such terms can be interpreted quite differently by different people, and it should be clear that the precise way that we construe such terms will not only determine our own reactions, but will exert a parallel influence on our estimates of the reactions of others. Because people fail to appreciate the extent to which others may "construe" the same object quite differently, their consensus estimates fail to take full account of an important source of potential divergence. A series of laboratory experiments will examine how such construal processes lead people to form exaggerated estimates of the commonness of their own beliefs, opinions, and behaviors, and how such distorted perceptions of consensus serve to bolster erroneous beliefs. Ultimately, this research should lead to a better understanding of the causes of, and cures for, distorted judgments, misguided decisions, and erroneous beliefs.