A Population Approach to Ubicomp System Design

在没有技术支持或监督的情况下添加和删除模块（也称为插件，插件和其他名称）正在成为日常软件应用程序的规范，例如Web浏览器，图像编辑器和电子邮件工具，例如Firefox，Photoshop和Outlook。同样的方法在移动的手机软件中也变得越来越重要，在手机软件中，模块的“应用内购买”变得越来越流行，这对开发者来说是一个巨大的摇钱树。结果并不都是好的：用户通常不知道使用或更改哪些模块以满足他们的目标，或者在这样的更改后程序是否会崩溃。由于模块来自不同的开发人员，它们的组合在公开使用之前可能从未经过测试。评估人员和开发人员很难提供帮助，因为软件定义、设计和分析的既定方法都是基于程序的结构，无论何时何地使用它都是相同的。在Firefox中，很难定义一个单一的软件结构来准确地描述像Firefox这样的程序是什么。使用也同样难以确定，因为个人会根据自己的用途和环境来制作系统，并与他人分享他们的创新。随着模块化程序变得复杂，其结果往往是一个“插件地狱”，里面的软件依赖性、功能、用途和期望都被打破。相反，如果软件结构保持简单，那么设计机会就会失去，因为开发人员避免了实现创新程序的困难和成本。更普遍的是，软件理论和工程已经落后于实践。我们缺乏以原则性的方式对真实的世界结构和使用进行预测性推理的方法。我们缺乏为设计者、评估者和用户提供的支持适应性的工具，我们也缺乏能够处理人与软件交互规模的原则和技术。我们的主要目标是提供一种新的软件结构科学，其设计，理论和工具反映了软件在真实的世界中的使用，并能够解决如何设计以支持更改和拨款的复杂问题。关键的概念是“软件人口”：当我们看到相同的初始程序如何被用户使用和适应时，我们看到的各种统计模型。人口模型通过程序的每个实例记录它是如何使用和更改的来保持最新。人口思想提供了一个共同的设计词汇表，用户的理解和适应程序，评估人员的分析程序的使用，并为开发人员作出明智的变化，以模块提供给用户。因此，用户将拥有可能不同的程序，但比今天的情况更容易理解，更强大，更适应。我们将使每个用户能够做出只有他/她才有资格做出的实际决定：如何平衡系统的健壮性和功能的变化以及系统对个人和社会交互的支持。一个人将有工具内置到一个人的程序中，清楚地表明它由什么组成，以及它的结构如何与其他用户的程序和体验相关。你可以找到与你的程序兼容的其他模块，在添加一个或多个新模块后它将如何工作，因此哪些模块的配置将工作，哪些将不工作。为了测试这种方法是否在典型的iPhone应用程序的规模上工作，我们将在大量用户中构建和部署程序，数周或数月-移动游戏和社交网络应用程序。我们将与包括爱丁堡足球俱乐部在内的行业合作伙伴合作，并利用流行的体育和赛事，如足球（如2014年巴西世界杯足球赛）、田径（如2012年伦敦奥运会和2014年格拉斯哥英联邦运动会）和流行的电视节目。总体而言，我们计划在计划过程中为我们的系统提供500，000 - 1，000，000名用户。

Adding and removing modules (also called plug-ins, add-ins and other names) without technical support or supervision is becoming the norm for everyday software applications such as web browsers, image editors and email tools, e.g. Firefox, Photoshop and Outlook. This same approach is becoming important in mobile phone software, where 'in-app purchase' of modules is becoming more and more popular, and a huge money-spinner for developers. The consequences are not all good: users often do not know which modules to use or change, to suit their goals, or whether a program will crash after such changes. As a result of modules being from different developers, their combination may never have been tested prior to public use. Evaluators and developers struggle to help, because established approaches to software definition, design and analysis are based on the structure of a program being the same wherever and whenever it is used. In constrast, one would be hard put to define a single software structure that accurately describes what a program like Firefox is. Use is similarly hard to pin down, as individuals make systems fit with their own uses and contexts, and share their innovations with others.As a modular program becomes complex, the result is often a 'plug-in hell' of broken software dependencies, functions, uses and expectations. If, instead, software structure is kept simple, then design opportunities are lost as developers avoid the difficulty and cost of implementing innovative programs. More generally, software theory and engineering have fallen behind practice. We lack ways to reason predictively in a principled way about real world structure and use. We lack tools for designers, evaluators and users that support adaptation, and we lack principles and techniques that can deal with the scale of human and software interaction. Our primary objective is to deliver a new science of software structures, with design, theory and tools that reflect software in real world use, and able to tackle the complex problem of how to design to support change and appropriation. The key concept is the 'software population': a statistical model of the variety we see when we look at how the same initial program has been used and adapted by its users. A population model is kept up to date by each instance of a program logging how it is used and changed. The population idea affords a common design vocabulary for users' understanding and adaptation of programs, for evaluators' analysis of programs in use, and for developers' making informed changes to the modules available to users. As a result, users will have programs that may vary but are more comprehensible, robust and adaptable than is the case today. We will enable each individual user to make a practical decision that only he/she is qualified to make: how to balance the changed robustness and functionality of one's system with changes to the system's support for individual and social interactions. One will have tools built into one's program that makes clear what it consists of, and how its structure relates to the programs and experiences of other users. One can find out about other modules that are compatible with one's program, how it will work after adding in one or more new modules, and therefore which configurations of modules will and will not work.In order to test whether the approach works at the scale of, for example, typical iPhone applications, we will build and deploy programs among large numbers of users, for weeks or months-mobile games and social networking applications. We will work with industrial partners including the Edinburgh Festivals, as well as using popular sports and events, such as soccer (e.g. the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil), athletics (e.g. the London 2012 Olympics and the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games), and popular TV programmes. Overall, We plan for 500,000-1,000,000 users of our systems in the course of the programme.