PV2025 - Potential Costs and Benefits of Photovoltaics for UK-Infrastructure and Society

今天，光催化剂的安装在很大程度上是根据数量进行评估的，任何市场刺激的成功都是根据目标的实现情况进行评估的。这可能会给国家基础设施带来重大问题，并可能导致电网稳定的重大不必要成本。然而，这些因素有时被过于简单地评估。当在国家背景下考虑光伏时，它在很大程度上也被视为一个同质的设备群，即所有设备的反应都相当相似。这并不考虑不同的方向（系统高度决定季节最大值，系统方向决定每日最大值）或环境条件的区域差异，例如天气锋面在几天内而不是瞬间经过全国，或者北方经历与南方不同的天气锋面;全国范围内的平滑可能会很好地限制对功率控制的需求。因此，该提案的首要问题是“我们如何在拥有充满活力的光伏市场的同时，最大限度地提高英国电力公司的利益并限制其成本？”'.这项工作分为四个主题领域（工作包），回答了四个关键问题：-我们可能会得到多少光伏与不同的政策，它可能会被安装在哪里？这将考虑不同的社会经济驱动因素，光伏成本曲线和安装方案的工作，这些工作与安装，位置（如区域）和数量的可能社会背景有关。这将在何时何地产生多少能量？将在现有设施的基础上，根据系统的邮政编码开发一个系统性能预测模型，并根据现有的信托基金数据和其他现有监测数据进行验证。这项活动的一个副产品将是对当前装置的广泛调查，这将为任何关于补贴流的进一步讨论提供信息，并将调查利用稀疏数据进行详细状况监测的可能性。该模型将与社会经济驱动因素相联系，以随机定位未来的装置（使用地理信息系统和邮政编码分类器），并估计每个系统的能源产量，并汇总到发电区域。这意味着基本上对于每个安装的系统（目前在FIT下的400000个系统的范围内），需要计算每小时的发电量，这将需要在计算中进行非常复杂的速度优化。它将如何影响基础设施？电网模拟将自下而上和自上而下进行，以查看拟议的安装是否存在地方或国家问题。这将允许建议采取进一步措施来加强基础设施，并允许对光伏技术进行成本效益分析。会有哪些反馈？大多数政策将对上述问题产生影响，因此可以预见，将创建一种反馈方法，计算英国电力公司的成本/收益，并评估政策制定者和电网运营商的可能反应。将严格管理不同团体之间的合作，以便项目成果良好衔接。将生成工具并提供非专有数据供公众使用。

The installation of photovoltaics today is largely evaluated in terms of quantity and the success of any market stimulation evaluated on the basis of how well the targets are met. This may cause significant problems for the national infrastructure and may lead to significant unnecessary costs for grid stabilisation. However, these factors are sometimes assessed too simplistically. When considering PV in a national context, it is also largely seen as a homogenous swarm of devices, i.e. all of them reacting rather similarly. This does not consider different orientations (system elevation determines the seasonal maximum, system orientation determines the daily maximum) or regional differences in the environmental conditions such as weather fronts passing in a matter of days over the country rather than instantaneously or the North experiencing a different weather front than the South; nationwide smoothing might very well limit the need for power control. Thus the overarching question in this proposal is 'How can we maximise the benefits and limit the costs for UK plc while having a vibrant PV market?'. The work is split into four topical areas (work-packages), which answer the four key questions:- How much PV are we likely to get with different policies and where is it likely to be installed? This will consider different socio-economic drivers, cost curves of PV and work on installation scenarios giving links to likely social background of installations, locations (as in regions) and quantities.- How much energy will this generate when and where? Based on current installations a model for the performance prediction of systems based on their post-code will be developed and validated against existing FIT data and other available monitoring data. A spin-off of this activity will be the widespread investigation of current installations, that will inform any further discussions on subsidy streams, and the potential for detailed condition monitoring with sparse data will be investigated. The model will be connected with the socio-economic drivers to stochastically locate future installations (using GIS and post-code classifiers), and estimate the energy yield for each system and aggregate to generation regions. This means that essentially for every system (which is today in the range of 400000 systems under the FIT) installed an hourly generation needs to be calculated, which will require very complex speed optimisation in the calculations.- How will it impact the infrastructure? Grid simulations will be carried out bottom up as well as top down to see if there are issues either locally or nationally with the proposed installations. This will allow the recommendation of further measures to strengthen infrastructure and will allow a cost-benefit analysis of PV technology to be undertaken.- What feedback will there be? Most policies will have effects on the questions above and thus it is foreseen that a feedback methodology will be created, calculating the costs/benefits for UK plc as well as evaluating likely responses of the policy makers and grid operators.The collaboration between the different groups will be tightly managed, so that the project outcomes interface well. Tools will be generated and made available with non-proprietary data for public use.