Energy Saving Innovations and Economy-Wide Rebound Effects

拟议的项目旨在估计英国国内各种类型的能源效率提高所节省的能源和碳，并调查这些节省如何被各种类型的反弹效应所抵消。它寻求扩大和增加关于反弹效应专题的日益增长的研究的价值，特别是包括目前由创新和能源需求中心(CIED)正在进行的研究。当提高能效的创新所节省的潜在能源被对更便宜的能源服务的各种经济反应部分(或全部)抵消时，就会出现反弹效应。例如，如果一个家庭安装了一个冷凝式锅炉，它使用较少的天然气来生产给定数量的热水，这可能会鼓励他们将家庭加热到更长的时间和/或更高的温度，从而抵消一些潜在的能源节约。这被称为直接反弹效应。此外，省下的煤气费将用于购买其他商品和服务，比如购买一台新电视。这种变化和额外的消费可能涉及家庭直接使用能源，但也间接使用来自英国和国外供应链不同阶段的所有商品和服务中的间接能源。这些被称为间接反弹效应。此外，消费模式的转变也可能改变对当地生产和进口商品相对于出口的需求，从而对一系列市场和区域的经济活动、价格、收入、能源消耗和碳排放产生影响。这些被称为全经济范围的反弹效应。类似的机制也适用于钢铁制造商等生产商提高能效的成本效益。能源效率的提高降低了能源服务的边际成本，从而鼓励生产者更多地使用这些服务。更低的投入成本可以降低产出价格，这反过来将增加产出，提高生产率，并在效率提高的部门和下游(如白色家电制造)提高竞争力。这将鼓励整个经济中更多的活动和能源使用。同样，随着价格和收入的调整以及生产和消费决策的变化，各种间接的和整个经济范围的反弹效应将发挥作用。这些不同机制的净影响可能非常显著，并可能潜在地破坏英国能效政策目标的实现。然而，尽管这些影响的存在是既定的，但关于这些影响的规模的证据仍然有限、相互矛盾和有争议。所吸取的经验教训也被证明难以向政策和利益攸关方受众传达，结果是反弹效应继续被广泛忽视和/或误解。目前CIED的研究应用了一系列技术来估计个别能源服务的直接反弹效应。然而，这只是故事的一部分--而且可能只是一小部分。拟议中的项目将通过以下方式增加这一活动的价值：第一，将重点从个别部门和服务扩大到整个英国经济；第二，纳入国际供应链对能源使用和排放的影响；第三，纳入范围更广的经济机制。它将调查工业和家庭能源使用效率提高的影响，特别是投资和能源供应决策在决定反弹的不同要素方面的作用。中心目标是澄清和促进关于不同部门不同类型节能创新的直接、间接和整个经济反弹影响的来源、性质、决定因素和程度的知识和证据基础。此外，该项目旨在将结果的影响有效地传达给不同的受众。

The proposed project seeks to estimate the energy and carbon savings from various types of energy efficiency improvement within the UK, and to investigate how these may be offset by various types of rebound effect. It seeks to expand and add value to the growing research on the topic of rebound effects, including in particular the research that currently being conducted by the Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand (CIED). Rebound effects occur where the potential energy savings from efficiency-enhancing innovations are partially (or wholly) offset by a variety of economic responses to cheaper energy services. For example, if a household installs a condensing boiler that uses less gas to produce a given amount of hot water, this may encourage them to heat their homes for longer and/or to a higher temperature, thereby offsetting some of the potential energy savings. This is termed a direct rebound effect. In addition, any money saved on gas bills will be spent on other goods and services, such as buying a new TV. This changed and additional consumption may involve direct energy use by the household, but also indirect use of the energy that is 'embedded' in all goods and services from different stages of their supply chain, both in the UK and abroad. These are termed indirect rebound effects. Moreover, shifts in consumption patterns may also change the demand for locally produced and imported goods relative to exports, thereby impacting on economic activity, prices, incomes, energy consumption and carbon emissions in a range of markets and regions. These are termed economy wide rebound effects. Similar mechanisms apply to cost-effective energy efficiency improvements by producers, such as steel manufacturers. Energy efficiency improvements lower the marginal cost of energy services, thus encouraging increased use of those services by the producer. Lower input costs permit reductions in output prices, which will in turn increase output, boost productivity and improve competiveness both in the sector where efficiency improves and down-stream (e.g. in white goods manufacture). This will encourage increased activity and energy use throughout the economy. Again, a variety of indirect and economy-wide rebound effects will come into play as prices and incomes adjust and as production and consumption decisions change. The net effect of these various mechanisms may be very significant and could potentially undermine achievement of the objectives of UK energy efficiency policies.However, while the existence of such effects is well established, the evidence on the size of these effects remains limited, contradictory and controversial. The lessons learned have also proved to difficult to communicate to policy and stakeholder audiences, with the result that rebound effects continue to be widely ignored and/or misunderstood.The current CIED research applies a range of techniques to estimate the direct rebound effects for individual energy services. However, this is only a part of the story - and potentially just a small part. The proposed project will add value to this activity by: first, extending the focus from individual sectors and services to the whole UK economy; second, by including the impacts on energy use and emissions along international supply chains; and third, incorporating a much wider range of economic mechanisms. It will investigate the impacts of improved efficiency in both industrial and household energy use, focusing in particular on the role of investment and energy supply decisions in determining different elements of rebound. The central aim is to clarify and advance the knowledge and evidence base regarding the source, nature, determinants and magnitude of direct, indirect and economy-wide rebound effects from different types of energy-saving innovations in different sectors. Moreover, the project aims effectively to communicate the implications of the results to various audiences.