ESTIMATE FINANCIAL LIABILITY FOR LONG TERM CARE

我们的目标是开发一种最先进的技术， 提供未来财务负债的估计 社会健康维护组织 （SHMO）和提供长期护理的小型保险公司 效益 （SHMO是HMO，也提供长期护理 服务） 估计未来金融负债 组织需要预测长期护理的需求 服务 这意味着健康和健康之间的复杂相互作用 必须对随时间变化的残疾状态进行建模。 该项目将 还提供了各种影响的分类估计， 人口中的群体，允许各种公共和私人 应对措施和政策有待探讨。 这一方法将 允许将现实的经济假设纳入 预测。 SHMO和退休社区需要这些 这是一种信息，因此代表着潜在的市场。 数据来源将包括国家老龄化研究所的 老龄化的纵向研究。

Our objective is to develop a state-of-the-art technology to provide estimates of future financial liability for organizations such as social health maintenance organizations (SHMOs) and small insurance companies who offer long term care benefits. (SHMOs are HMOs which also provide long term care services.) Estimating the future financial liabilities of an organization requires forecasts of the need for long-term care services. This means that complex interactions of health and disability status over time must be modeled. The project will also provide disaggregate estimates of effects for various groups in the population, allow various public and private responses and policies to be explored. The methodology will allow realistic economic assumptions to be incorporated into the projections. SHMOs and retirement communities need this type of information and therefore represent potential markets. Data sources will include the National Institute of Aging's longitudinal study of aging.