WATER RESILIENT CITIES:CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY & URBAN VULNERABILITY to HYDROHAZARDS

城市是地区、国家乃至全球经济的驱动力。城市地区与其腹地之间复杂的相互关系是城市经济成功的一个重要方面。腹地提供水、食物和能源等资源；同时通过贸易与城市地区建立经济联系。创建有弹性的、可持续的、水安全的城市取决于我们对不断变化的水害（洪水和干旱）的潜在未来风险的理解，以及我们提高应对能力的能力。2014年，在全球范围内，水害造成的损失超过160亿美元（洪水）和75亿美元（干旱）。而在英国，在过去的五年里，水力灾害给水管理带来了重大挑战。自2000年以来，洪水造成了超过50亿英镑的损失，其中30亿英镑是由2007年的洪水造成的，超过10亿英镑是由2013/14年的冬季风暴造成的，对家庭和企业都造成了影响。同样，英国最近的干旱（2011-12年）造成的直接成本（估计为7000 - 1.65亿英镑）来自城市供水和工业的影响。对未来气候的预估认识到，在温度和降水趋势方面存在额外的不确定性，这可能会加剧此类灾害发生的频率和严重程度。为了应对将我们的城市转变为有弹性的、可持续的城市中心的挑战，以及在“适应和减缓气候变化”的背景下，我将量化未来水害的不确定性，并设计工程/政策干预措施，以提高城市的弹性，为未来城市及其腹地的城市水安全适应提供信息。我的奖学金将：利用新技术量化气候变暖下未来城市水文灾害的不确定性；设计工程和政策干预，以减轻这些不确定性带来的风险；通过增强对水害的抵御能力改善城市生活。我将通过捕捉水文灾害事件中的不确定性并将其层叠到危害评估中来实现这一目标，挑战当前的确定性范式。我将描述新暴露人群或部门的脆弱性概况，并开发一种突破性的系统方法来改善风险，以便设计变革性的复原力战略。这一愿景的实现具有挑战性，但通过将来自各个领域的不确定性量化的进展与我一贯寻求挑战确定性范式的研究相结合，这是可能的。授予这一奖学金将创造一个独特的机会，以提高我们对气候预测对城市生活系统性风险的作用的理解，以及如何解决这些风险。输出将包括：1。详细了解由于气候预测（以及相关的不确定性）而导致的英国各地水文灾害的变化，在气候变率的背景下进行沟通，2。将气候不确定性纳入城市尺度变化的水力灾害所带来的系统风险评估的概率框架，2。3 .分析不断变化的城市脆弱性，与此相关的不确定性，并使用新的高度离散的脆弱性指标探索新暴露人口。4 .城市应对不断变化的水害的系统方法；弹性策略;例如，变革性工程干预。

Cities are the driver of regional, national and indeed global economies. The complex inter-relationship between urban areas and their hinterlands is a vital aspect of a city's economic success. Hinterlands supply resources such as water, food and energy; while being economically-tied to the urban area through trade. Creating resilient, sustainable, water-secure cities depends on our understanding of the potential future risks of changing hydro-hazards (floods and droughts) and our ability to increase our resilience to them. Worldwide, in 2014, hydro-hazards resulted in over $16Bn (floods) and $7.5Bn (droughts) in damages. While, in the UK over the past five years there have been significant challenges to water management posed by hydro hazards. Since 2000, flooding has caused over £5Bn worth of damage, of which £3Bn was caused by the 2007 floods, and over £1Bn from the 2013/14 winter storms, impacting households and businesses alike. Similarly direct costs (estimated at £70-165M) from the recent UK drought (2011-12) arose from impacts to urban water supplies, and industry. Projections of future climate recognise that there is an added uncertainty in temperature and precipitation trends which may exacerbate the frequency and severity of such hazards. To respond to the stated challenge of transforming our cities to be resilient, sustainable urban centres and in the context of 'adapting to and mitigating climate change', I will quantify uncertainty in future hydro-hazards and design engineering/policy interventions to increase urban resilience which informs future urban water security adaptation for cities and their hinterlands. My fellowship will:1. quantify future urban hydro-hazard uncertainty in a warming climate using novel techniques,2. design engineering and policy interventions to mitigate the risk arising from these uncertainties, and3. improve urban living through enhanced resilience to hydro-hazards.I will achieve this by capturing uncertainty in hydro-hazard events and cascading this through to hazard assessment, challenging the current deterministic paradigm. I will characterise the vulnerability profile of newly exposed populations or sectors, and develop a ground breaking systems approach to ameliorate risk in order to design transformative resilience strategies. The delivery of this vision is challenging yet possible through combining advances in uncertainty quantification from a variety of fields, with my research which has consistently sought to challenge the deterministic paradigm. Awarding this fellowship will create a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of the role of climate projections on the systematic risk to urban living and how such risks can be addressed.Output will include: 1. detailed understanding of the change to hydro hazards across the UK as a result of climate projections (and associated uncertainty), communicated in the context of climate variability,2. probabilistic frameworks to capture climate uncertainty into assessments of systematic risk posed by changing hydro hazards at the urban scale,3. analysis of the changing urban vulnerability, the uncertainty associated with this and exploration of the newly exposed population using new, and highly discretised vulnerability metrics,4. a systems approach to urban resilience to changing hydro hazards, and5. resilience strategies; e.g. transformative engineering interventions.