Newton Fund - Rapid Earthquake Risk Assessment and Post-Earthquake Disaster Management Framework for Substandard Buildings in Turkey

作为人口增长和城市化的结果，我们面临的地震风险正在增加，其中最大的风险来自不合格的建筑。不合标准的钢筋混凝土(RC)结构在土耳其城市和郊区现有建筑库存中占很大比例。众所周知，这种结构非常脆弱，在过去的地震(Kocaeli 1999、Duzce 1999和Van 2011)中遭受了灾难性的破坏，导致了不可原谅的广泛的人员、经济和社会损失，因为土耳其地震设计规范(1997)于2007年修订，对抗震设计提出了更严格的要求，并减轻了脆弱性。然而，现代规范的好处以及在设计和施工期间更严格的规范执行和检查只会在未来造福社会，而目前的库存仍然非常脆弱。因此，迫切需要可靠的脆弱性评估、适当的地震风险管理策略和快速的灾后响应，以显著减少未来严重地震的潜在损失。此次合作的目的是协同土耳其和英国在地震工程、地震风险评估和危机管理领域的领先机构的互补专业知识，以开发一个创新的、综合的和有效的框架，用于土耳其的多危害地震风险评估和减灾。从智能设备的实时数据中获得的快速地震风险评估和震后灾害情报将首次结合起来。这种协同作用将有助于协调震后搜索和救援行动，提高对情况的认识，并验证地震风险评估预测。将创建一种新的快速评估建筑物的方法，该方法将考虑到初级/次级地震危险(例如山体滑坡和液化)的所有组成部分、结构脆弱性和金融/经济方面。先前制定的不合标准建筑物的全面快速风险评估框架将被用来提供基准，以校准和优化所制定的框架。在校准/优化过程中，将使用从土耳其(马尔马拉地区)未达到标准的建筑收集的地震前/地震后清查数据和现场测量的高质量地震学信息。该项目还将处理危机管理的沟通和知识建模问题，从而确保有效利用从高级别地震风险评估中获得的数据。将使用一种创新的方法，将现场/实验观测与来自移动设备和广泛用于社交网络的高级应用程序的实时数据结合起来。这些实时数据将被用来进一步校准制定的框架，协调搜救行动，并提高对危机情况的认识。使用社交媒体数据分析对压力、创伤和恢复进行危机后管理，将有助于在土耳其创建一个更具韧性的社会。新的框架将用于提供最优的缓解战略，以减少土耳其地震造成的经济损失和管理社会影响，该框架可以推广到世界其他地区。在严重地震之前，将向人民/政府提供社会/灾害管理和有效沟通风险缓解战略的建议。

As a consequence of population growth and urbanisation, our exposure to the seismic hazard is increasing, with the greatest risk arising from substandard constructions. Substandard reinforced concrete (RC) structures account for a large proportion of the existing building stock in urban and suburban regions of Turkey. Such structures are known to be highly vulnerable and have experienced catastrophic damage during past earthquakes (Kocaeli 1999, Duzce 1999, and Van 2011) leading to inexcusably extensive human, economic and societal losses given that the Turkish Seismic Design Code (1997) was revised in 2007 to introduce more stringent requirements for seismic design and mitigate vulnerability. However, the benefits of modern codes and more stringent code enforcement and inspection during design and construction will only benefit society in the future, whilst the current stock remains highly vulnerable. Consequently, there is an urgent need for reliable vulnerability assessments, appropriate seismic risk management strategies and fast rapid post-disaster response to significantly reduce potential losses in future severe earthquakes.The aim of this collaboration is to synergise complementary expertise of leading institutions in Turkey and the UK in the field of Earthquake Engineering and Seismic Risk Assessment and Crisis Management so as to develop, an innovative, integrated and efficient framework for multi-hazard seismic risk assessment and disaster mitigation in Turkey. Rapid earthquake risk assessment and post-earthquake disaster intelligence obtained from real-time data from smart devices will be coupled for the first time. This synergy will contribute to the coordination of post-earthquake search and rescue actions, enhance situational awareness and to validate earthquake risk assessment predictions.A new methodology for rapid assessment of structures will be created considering all components of primary/secondary earthquake hazards (e.g. landslides and liquefaction), structural vulnerability and financial/economic aspects. A previously developed comprehensive rapid risk assessment framework for substandard buildings will be used to provide a benchmark for calibration and optimisation of the developed framework. Pre/post-earthquake inventory data collected from substandard buildings in Turkey (region of Marmara) and high-quality seismological information from in-field measurements will be used in the calibration/optimisation process. The project will also address communication and knowledge modelling for crisis management, thus ensuring an efficient use of the data obtained from the high-level earthquake risk assessment. An innovative approach will be used to combine field/experimental observations and real-time data from mobile devices and advanced apps widely used for social networking. Such real-time data will be used to further calibrate the developed framework, to coordinate search/rescue actions and to increase situational awareness around the crisis. The use of social media data analysis for post-crisis management of stress, trauma and recovery will help create a more resilience society in Turkey. The new framework will be used to provide optimal mitigation strategies to reduce economic losses and manage the social impacts of earthquakes in Turkey, and the framework can be extended to the rest of the world.Recommendations for social/disaster management and efficient communication of risk mitigation strategies will be provided to people/government before severe earthquakes.