Adaptive Decision Making for Urban Energy Transformation

政府的基础设施决策顾问国家基础设施委员会(NIC)已经确定，需要决策支持工具，纳入多个决策者在多个规模和不同基础设施系统中做出的决策。这一奖学金将具体回应这一需求。有许多工具和方法旨在帮助决策者了解和管理与长期决策相关的不确定性。这些不确定性包括基础设施系统之间相互作用的影响以及社会和环境变化的影响。然而，大多数工具和方法都假设有一个具有明确目标的决策者，并且他们的偏好随着时间的推移保持不变。不同决策者(或通常被称为参与者)之间的相互作用是一种额外的不确定性，很少被认识到。然而，随着我们试图更快地过渡基础设施，以及新的技术和工作方式正在推动基础设施和决策者之间更紧密的互动，这一问题变得越来越重要。该研究金将根据为支持面对社会和环境变化的决策而开发的长期规划方法，开发一种多行为者、适应性的决策方法。新办法将允许决策者还考虑与其他规模和其他系统的决策限制相关的不确定性。它将开发可使用的方法，以分析决策者之间的互动，并确定改造反映这些互动并利用这些互动的基础设施所需的活动。它将开发快速和透明的建模方法，以帮助分析决策者的互动如何影响活动的成功实施，以及这如何有助于基础设施转型。它将把这些方法和模型应用于案例研究，以制定长期但可适应的基础设施转型计划。决策者分析方法和模型的成果将被用来创建可适应的活动路径，这些路径既可以改变基础设施，也可以对社会和环境变化或其他决策者的限制作出反应。本文的主要成果是将方法和模型相结合，形成适应路径的多行为者自适应决策方法。本文将以城市能源为例，提出方法、模型和总体方法。气候变化委员会和NIC都已确定，城市能源系统转型对英国的可持续发展至关重要，迫切需要长期决策支持，这使其成为一个及时的、对全国具有重要意义的测试案例。然而，城市实现这一转型的潜力被国家、地区和家庭规模以及其他基础设施系统所做出的决定所扼杀。这使得城市很难以能够实现其社会、环境和经济目标的方式参与能源系统。我将使用三个关于城市能源的案例研究；两个在英国，一个在欠发达国家，与真正的决策者密切合作，并使用参与性技术，以确保方法和模型既稳健又相关。我将成立一个地方基础设施委员会，以确定如何能够更好地协调地方和国家行动者的城市活动。开发的方法和工具将与能源以外的其他基础设施系统相关，并在英国以外的其他环境中具有相关性。该奖学金是在我职业生涯的关键时刻设立的，我准备投入大量时间和资源来建立一个证据库和研究小组，这对于培养我在国际学术界、政策和行业中的思想领导力和研究影响力至关重要。

The government's advisor on infrastructure decision making, the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC), has identified that there is a need for decision support tools which incorporate decisions taken by multiple decision makers, at multiple scales and in different infrastructure systems. This fellowship will specifically respond to that need. A number of tools and approaches exist, which aim to help decision makers to understand and manage the uncertainties associated with long-term decisions. These uncertainties include the effects of interaction between infrastructure systems and of social and environmental change. However, most tools and approaches assume that there is one decision maker with clearly defined objectives and that their preferences stay the same over time. The interaction between different decision makers (or actors as they are often called) is an additional uncertainty that is rarely recognised. However, it is becoming increasingly important as we try to transition infrastructures more rapidly and as new technologies and ways of working are forcing closer interaction between infrastructures and decision makers.This fellowship will develop a multi-actor, adaptive approach to decision making based on long-term planning approaches developed to support decisions in the face of social and environmental change. The new approach will allow decision makers to also consider uncertainty associated with constraints from decision making at other scales and in other systems. It will develop accessible methods to analyse interactions between decision makers and to identify activities required to transform infrastructure that reflect and capitalise on these interactions. It will develop rapid and transparent modelling methods to help analyse how decision maker interactions affect the successful implementation of activities and how this contributes to infrastructure transformation. It will apply these methods and models to case studies to develop long-term but adaptable plans for infrastructure transformation. The outputs of decision maker analysis methods and modelling will be used to create adaptable pathways of activities that can transform infrastructure but also respond to social and environmental change or constraints from other decision makers. The combination of methods and models to create adaptable pathways is the multi-actor, adaptive decision making approach, which is the main output of this fellowship.I will develop the methods, models and overarching approach using urban energy as a test-case. Both the Committee on Climate Change and the NIC have identified that transforming urban energy systems is essential to the UK's sustainable development and is urgently in need of long-term decision support, which makes it a timely and nationally important test-case. However, the potential for cities to deliver this transformation is stifled by decisions taken at national, regional and household scales and in other infrastructure systems. This makes it very difficult for cities to engage with the energy system in the way that could deliver on their social, environmental and economic objectives. I will use three case studies of urban energy; two in the UK and one in a less developed country, working closely with real decision makers and using participatory techniques to ensure that the approach and models are both robust and relevant. I will set up a Local Infrastructure Commission, to identify how city activity could be better co-ordinated locally and with national actors. The approaches and tools developed will have relevance to other infrastructure systems, beyond energy, and in other contexts, beyond the UK. The fellowship comes at a crucial time in my career, and I am ready to dedicate significant time and resources to building an evidence base and research group, which are essential to developing my thought leadership and research influence in academia, policy and industry at the international level.