Designing a resilient relief supply network for natural disasters in West Java Indonesia using optimisation-via-simulation: Relief-OpS

在这个项目中，我们将制定方法，优化自然灾害后基本救济物品的交付。其中包括优化仓库位置;库存管理策略，特别是易腐救济物品;以及灾后配送的稳健路线。优化工作将使用一个基于智能体的模拟模型，我们将根据关键决策者的意见构建该模型，旨在模拟灾后救援工作的复杂性。《2015-2030年仙台减少灾害风险框架》强调了灾害风险管理的重要性，承认风险管理和加强抗灾能力的重要性。根据仙台框架，印度尼西亚政府制定了一项国家灾害风险管理计划，其中强调印度尼西亚需要改善对自然灾害的准备和应对。为了执行该计划，印度尼西亚成立了国家灾害管理委员会，监督几个区域灾害管理委员会。DRM活动分为四个阶段：减灾、备灾、应对和恢复。根据印度尼西亚的国家计划，我们的研究重点是备灾阶段（灾害前进行的活动，以便更有效地响应活动，如预先定位救济物品的库存）和响应阶段（灾害后的活动，以减少其影响）。DRM的大多数研究分别解决DRM的准备和响应阶段，导致次优解决方案。此外，解决办法往往只基于一种类型的灾害。另一个差距是，大多数研究假设救济物品不易腐烂，救济分配得到很好的协调，灾害发生后立即知道需求和损失。我们对多灾害情况的关注，结合了提供救援支持的多个组织的所有复杂性，将产生更现实的模型，填补DRM文献中的空白，并产生更大的影响。本研究亦将先前的模拟优化方法延伸至多目标、多层次的问题。在本研究中，我们将与西爪哇地区委员会合作，从指定决策支援系统的需求，到发展实际的方案，以评估我们的方法。选择西爪哇省是因为它在印度尼西亚具有最高的多重灾害风险，这是由于人口规模、人口密度、对印度尼西亚GDP的高贡献以及作为爪哇岛水稻生产中心（水稻是印度尼西亚的主要主食）。由于我们将实施备灾和救灾的国家标准程序，其他区域委员会可以通过改变参数（例如地图、人口、基础设施）来定制决策支持系统，以适应其区域的特点。因此，我们还将组织一个从业人员讲习班，介绍我们的研究结果，并为所有区域委员会提供使用决策支持系统的培训。决策支助系统也可用于培训目的，这将加强区域委员会官员的准备工作，最后，该项目将建设这一重要研究领域的能力。英国和印度尼西亚的研究助理将从定期项目会议，与研究人员和科学顾问委员会成员的互动以及在南安普顿，Padjadjaran或英国和东南亚其他地方的相关培训中获益。我们亦会为对OvS、ABS及DRM运作研究有兴趣的印尼研究人员举办研讨会

In this project, we will develop methods that optimise the delivery of essential relief items following a natural disaster. These include optimising warehouse locations; inventory management strategies particularly for perishable relief items; and robust routing for post-disaster distribution. The optimisation will make use of an agent based simulation model that we will build with input from key decision-makers, designed to mimic the complexities of post-disaster relief efforts.The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 puts a strong emphasis on Disaster Risk Management, acknowledging the importance of risk management and strengthening resilience against disasters. Based on the Sendai Framework, the Indonesian government produces a national plan for disaster risk management which highlights the needs for Indonesia to improve its preparedness and response to natural disasters. To execute the plan, Indonesia has established the national board for disaster management overseeing several regional boards for disaster management.DRM activities span four phases: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Based on the Indonesian national plan, we focus our research on the preparedness phase (activities performed prior to disaster to allow more efficient response activities such as pre-positioning inventory of relief items) and the response phase (activities following a disaster to reduce its impact). The majority of research in DRM solves the preparedness and response phases of DRM separately, leading to suboptimal solutions. Furthermore, the solutions tend to be based on just one type of disaster. Another gap is that most research assumes that relief items are non-perishable, relief distribution is well coordinated, and demand and damages are known immediately after a disaster. Our focus on multi-disaster situations incorporating all of the complexities of multiple organisations providing relief support will result in more realistic models, filling the gaps in the literature in DRM and resulting in more impact. The research also extends previous Optimisation-via-Simulation methodology to multi-objective, multi-level problems.In this project, we will work with West Java regional board from specifying the requirements for the decision support system to developing realistic scenarios to evaluate our methods. West Java province is chosen because it has the highest multi-disaster risk in Indonesia due to the population size, population density, high contribution to Indonesian GDP and being the centre of rice production in Java island (rice is the main staple food in Indonesia). As we will implement the national standard procedures for disaster preparedness and response, the decision support system can be customised by other regional boards to suit the characteristics of their regions by changing the parameters (for example, map, demography, infrastructure). Therefore, we will also organise a practitioner workshop to present our findings and to provide training for all regional boards to use the decision support system. The decision support system can also be used for training purposes which will strengthen the preparedness of the regional board officials.Finally, this project will build capacity in this vital area of research. The research assistants in the UK and Indonesia will gain from regular project meetings, interactions with investigators and the scientific advisory board members, and relevant training in Southampton, Padjadjaran or other places in the UK and South East Asia. We will also organise a research workshop for Indonesian researchers who are interested in OvS, ABS and Operational Research in DRM