Hydrogen Infrastructure Uncertainty Management for Heat Decarbonisation

HUMAN项目的目标是对与氢主导的脱碳热相关的不确定性成本进行首次系统分析。可持续的脱碳途径需要具有不确定性弹性的政策。这些政策可以通过主动承认技术性能、热需求波动和社会经济波动造成的不确定性来制定。随着电力行业越来越依赖间歇性可再生能源以及政府承诺到2050年实现“净零”，氢气在热脱碳中的作用以及相关的不确定性需要迫切探索。该项目考虑了与氢主导系统的部署及其在多个空间和时间尺度上与电网的相互作用有关的战略和运营决策。利用该项目开发的工具，将在英国范围内探索电气化和氢基脱碳的最佳组合。使用新的不确定性建模方法，将分析与供热部门和制氢技术相关的不确定性的影响，以得出不确定性信息的过渡途径。最后，HUMAN建议传播一个具有用户友好界面的开源平台，以提高能源政策从业者的可解释性，并能够调查热脱碳的替代不确定性情景。

The goal of the HUMAN project is to provide the first systematic analysis on the cost of uncertainties related to the hydrogen-led decarbonisation of heat. Sustainable decarbonisation pathways require uncertainty-resilient policies. These policies can be informed by acknowledging proactively the uncertainties inflicted by technology performance, volatility in heat demand and socio-economic fluctuations. With the power sector becoming increasingly reliant on intermittent renewable sources and the Government's commitment to "Net-Zero" by 2050, the role of hydrogen towards heat decarbonisation and the related uncertainties need to be urgently explored. The project considers strategic and operational decisions related to the deployment of a hydrogen-led system and its interaction with the power grid across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Employing the tools developed within the project the optimal mix of electrification and hydrogen-based decarbonisation of heat will be explored at a UK-wide level. Using novel uncertainty modelling methods, the impact of uncertainties related to the heat sector and the hydrogen production technologies will be analysed to derive uncertainty-informed transition pathways. Finally, HUMAN proposes to disseminate an open-source platform with user-friendly interface to enhance interpretability among energy policy practitioners and enable the investigation of alternative uncertainty-informed scenarios for heat decarbonisation.