Theory of Change Observatory on Disaster Resilience

干旱等人道主义灾害使撒哈拉以南非洲约1000万人面临粮食、水和能源不安全的问题。除人道主义后果外，洪水等灾害还增加了投资风险，因为在发展中国家会产生废水处理厂等“搁浅资产”。全球气候模型可用于确定灾害风险的地理分布，但无法具体说明灾害的区域强度、频率和持续时间。在撒哈拉以南非洲，模型预测的干旱与现实之间的差异被称为“东非气候悖论”。由于模型的不一致性，投资者和决策者很难对即将发生的事件进行预警，并在事件发生时做出反应。然而，最近有两个政策趋势趋于一致，以加强网络化有效救灾的潜力：（a）扩大区域预警系统;（B）对开放数据平台的需求日益增加，以加强决策过程的问责制。例如，非洲数据共识（ADC）决心强调开放数据网络的作用，通过更好地组织数据和模型，支持一致的决策。从科学的角度来看，基于主体的建模也开始更有力地倡导利益相关者参与开发和校准模型。在这方面，我们先前对可持续发展目标6.3的废水再利用效率指数（WREI）进行的试点测试研究显示，缩小规模的模型具有推动循环经济途径的潜力，例如具有减轻灾害风险潜力的废水回收利用。因此，变化理论观测站项目的总体目标是提高区域发展能力，通过以下方式对区域气候模型进行试点测试和验证，这些模型能够预测、评估和应对干旱和洪水风险的影响：（目标1）根据分散数据处理和重用的原则开发基于地点的观测站（工作包（WP）1，4）;（目标2）共同策划和共同设计区域研究，重点是缩小规模和联接灾害风险监测的可靠模型（工作方案2、3）;（目标3）对综合指数进行试点测试和验证，以此作为知识转化的手段，目的是建立关于抗灾能力的变革理论（工作方案5）。

Humanitarian disasters such as droughts expose approximately 10 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa to food, water and energy insecurity. Besides the humanitarian consequences disasters such as floods also heighten investment risks due to creation of "stranded assets" such as wastewater treatment plants in developing countries. Global climate models can be used to identify the geographical distribution of disaster risk but without being able to specify the regional intensity, frequency and duration of events. In Sub-Saharan Africa the difference between what models forecast and the reality of dryness has come to be known as the "East Africa Climate paradox". Because of model inconsistency, it is difficult forinvestors and decision makers to be forewarned about impending events and to respond when they occur. Two recent policy trends have however converged to enhance the potential for Cyber-enabled Effective Disaster Response: (a) the expansion of Regional Early Warning Systems (REWS) and (b) a growing demand for open data platforms to enhance accountability of decision-making processes. For instance, the Africa Data Consensus (ADC) resolved to emphasize the role of open data networks to support coherent decisionmaking through better organization of data and models. From a scientific standpoint Agent Based Modelling has also begun to advocate more forcefully for engagement of stakeholders to develop and calibrate models. In this regard, our prior research to pilot-test the Wastewater Reuse Effectiveness Index (WREI) for Sustainable Development Goal 6.3 revealed the potential of down-scaled models to advance circular economy pathways, such as wastewater recycling with potential to mitigate disaster risk.The overall aim of the Theory of change Observatory project will therefore be to enhance regional capacity to develop, pilot-test and validate regional climate models that enables the prediction, assessment and response to effects of droughts and flood risk by:(Obj 1) Developing a place-based observatory based on principles of dispersed data handling and reuse (Work Package (WP) 1,4);(Obj 2) Co-curating and co-designing regional research that focuses on down-scaling and coupling robust models of disaster risk monitoring (WP2,3); and(Obj 3) Pilot-testing and validating composite indices as a means of knowledge translation with the objective of building a theory of change on disaster resilience (WP5).