timeriskbeliefs: Beliefs, Time, and Risk Preferences

这项研究计划研究人们是如何做出决定的。主要关注的是个体的期望、风险厌恶和跨期替代之间的联系。理解这些联系将有助于揭示几种经济现象，并澄清现有经济模式的限制和局限性。这项研究议程将分两条线展开。第一行将调查个人的信念如何影响个人做出的选择。我们将研究不同的信息环境如何产生“心理搜索摩擦”，以及这些摩擦与经济学家传统上研究的“真实”搜索成本有何不同。与搜索成本不同，心理摩擦取决于收集的信息和涉及的回报。心理摩擦为经验性观察提供了一种解释，即个人往往无法在高风险环境中寻找更好的选择。我们还将利用这一理论来研究信息环境如何塑造人们创业、承担金融风险和购买保险的意愿。第二项工作将研究时间和风险偏好与随机不耐性的关系，随机不耐性是一种行为特性，它将不耐烦概括为风险环境。我们将研究随机不耐烦施加的限制，并通过实验检验其有效性。我们的目标是为用于拟合宏观经济和金融数据的模型和参数提供指导，并开辟一条识别和测试的新途径。

This research proposal studies how people make decisions. The main focus is on the connections between individuals' expectations, risk aversion, and intertemporal substitution. Understanding these connections will shed light on several economic phenomena and clarify the restrictions and limitations of existing economic models.This research agenda will be developed in two lines of work. The first line will investigate how an individual's beliefs shape which choices the individual makes. We will study how different informational environments generate "psychological search frictions" and how these frictions differ from "real" search costs, traditionally studied by economists. Unlike search costs, psychological frictions depend on the information being collected and the payoffs involved. Psychological frictions provide an explanation for the empirical observation that individuals often fail to search for better options in high-stakes settings. We will also use this theory to study how the informational environment shapes people's willingness to start new businesses, take financial risks, and buy insurance.The second line of work will study how time and risk preferences relate to Stochastic Impatience, a behavioural property that generalises impatience to risky environments. We will study the restrictions that Stochastic Impatience imposes and test its validity with experiments. Our aim is to provide guidance on models and parameters used to fit Macroeconomic and Finance data and to open a new avenue for identification and testing.