The 1990's: sectoral rebalancing, mobility and adaptation - the employment, self-employment and training policy lessons for the current UK recession

最近这场始于2007/8年度的衰退采取了与以往不同的道路，最初失业率上升相对温和，但计划在未来几年大幅削减公共部门的就业人数。预计退出公共部门的工人将被复苏和扩张的私营部门吸收。对失业的研究虽然很重要，但对于这一变化所带来的转型，只能提供一个局部的视角。许多人可能会离开他们以前的职业道路，寻找新的职业道路，比如自营职业，而不一定会出现在官方的失业数据中。因此，我们建议对行业和职业之间的变动以及职业适应进行广泛研究，在这一研究中，失业将只是一个附属部分。这项研究的主要目的是探索如何利用1990年代的经验来阐明围绕计划中的公共部门裁员的政策问题。我们的部分目的是利用现有的调查数据来探索在20世纪90年代参与其中的个人后来发生了什么，当时也发生了深度衰退和公共部门工作岗位的大幅减少。我们还将测试这些个人是否普遍进入私营部门。这项研究使用了始于1991年的英国家庭调查(BHPS)的信息，该调查跟踪了1991年被选为1991年英国人口代表的同一组人。在这项调查中，我们将使用涵盖20世纪90年代和21世纪初的20年数据作为了解这些问题的窗口。这项研究将利用流动性和职业理论的几个最新发展，并将评估职业和工业地位(除了教育和技能成就之外)作为职业连续性和适应资源的相对价值。就方法而言，买位计划所提供的长达20年的期间将被用来考虑个人特征，同时评估个人和家庭特征以及就业历史对一系列经济和结果(如收入和福祉)的影响。从政策的角度来看，这项研究将强调培训在遏制个人被迫离开公共部门的影响方面的作用，将估计个人的相对私人成本和流动的好处，并将为那些需要通过裁员或裁员而离开工作或职业的人提出职业咨询建议。虽然职业培训的价值已经在现有的文献中得到了很好的证明，但在这里我们要解决一个新的问题，那就是面临裁员的工人的职业培训的价值。

The recent recession, beginning in 2007/8, has taken a different course from previous ones, with a relatively moderate increase in unemployment initially but large cuts in public sector employment planned over the coming years. It is anticipated that the workers exiting the public-sector will be absorbed by a recovering and expanding private sector. Studies of unemployment, while important, will provide only a partial view of the transitions that are entailed by this change. Many individuals are likely to leave their former career paths and seek new ones, such as self-employment, without necessarily appearing in official unemployment figures. So we propose a broad study of the movements between industries and occupations, and of career adaptation, in which unemployment will form only a subsidiary part. The main objective of the research is to discover how the experience of the 1990s could be used to throw light on the policy issues around the planned cuts in the public sector workforce. Part of our aim is to use existing survey data to explore what subsequently happened to the individuals involved in the 1990s when there was also a deep recession and a great reduction in public sector jobs. We will also test whether there was a general movement into the private sector for these individuals. The research uses information from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) which began in 1991 and follows the same group of individuals who were selected to represent the 1991 UK population in 1991 over many years. We will use the 20 years of data covering the 1990s and early 2000s in this survey as a window on these issues. The study will take advantage of several recent developments in mobility and career theory, and will assess the relative value of occupational and industrial position (in addition to educational and skill attainments) as resources for career continuity and adaptation. In terms of method, the long 20 year period offered by the BHPS will be used to take account of individual characteristics while estimating the effects of individual and household characteristics and employment history on a range of economic and outcomes such as earnings and wellbeing. From a policy viewpoint, the study will incorporate an emphasis on the role of training in curbing the effects of an individual's forced shift from the public sector, will estimate the relative private costs to the individual and benefits of mobility, and will also generate recommendations for career counselling for those required to move from jobs or occupations through redundancy or cutbacks. Although the value of job training has been well documented in the existing literature, here we address a new question, which is the value of job training for workers facing redundancy.