Power-Sharing and Voting: Conflict, Accountability and Electoral Behaviour at the 2015 Northern Ireland Assembly Election

当北爱尔兰公民在2015年北爱尔兰议会选举中投票时，自1998年的耶稣受难日/贝尔法斯特协议确立权力下放和分享以来，已经过去了近20年。因此，对2015年议会选举的严格分析将使我们能够仔细考虑“和平进程”的影响以及与之相关的权力分享治理结构的实施。我们调查权力分享是否实际上为北爱尔兰人民带来了高质量的选举民主，或者只是巩固和加强了种族分裂。在我们的调查中，我们解决了一些具体的问题：1/权力分享机构在选举期间维持或降低了种族国家(新教英国人与天主教爱尔兰人)竞选和投票的重要性？在我们的研究中，我们通过将我们提出的2015年的研究与ESRC在1998年和2003年资助的早期研究联系起来，比较了1998-2015年间种族投票的强度。我们评估“跨集团”投票是否随着时间的推移而增加(新教徒对民族主义政党的支持率较低，或天主教徒对工会主义政党的支持率较低)。此外，我们还评估了种族-民族意识形态(基于民族主义与工会主义信念进行投票)的重要性是否随着时间的推移而变得更加重要或不重要。此外，我们将民族意识形态与非冲突意识形态(如经济左翼观点或道德自由-保守观点)进行比较。2/选举问责制可能吗？如果政府中只有一个政党，选民很容易确定谁应该为政府的表现负责。在联合政府中，选民很难清楚地看到，如果事情进展不好，应该归咎于哪个政党(或者如果事情进展顺利，就会得到奖励)。当所有政党都在执政而没有一个政党是反对党时，这一困难尤其严重，北爱尔兰的情况就是如此。我们评估在这样的背景下，选民是否真的有可能让决策者承担责任。3/投票有情感基础吗？在问题1和2之后，我们评估选民依赖于民族投票或基于表现的投票的条件。我们调查情绪的作用，并评估愤怒是否与基于种族-民族冲突的投票有关，而恐惧是否与基于表现的投票有关。4/权力分享会阻碍参与吗？没有明确的反对党是否会导致不愿从政？此外，权力分享有利于一个社区而不是另一个社区的感觉是否会导致与政治的疏远，或者非选举形式的政治抗议？5/北爱尔兰公民对政治改革的态度是什么(例如形成一个强烈的反对党，追究政府的责任，或者监管敏感的文化事务，如飘扬国旗和游行)？公民是如何形成这种态度的？为什么对拟议改革的异议会升级为暴力街头抗议？回答这些问题对于理解民主如何在北爱尔兰的敏感环境中运作至关重要。这些答案对于我们更广泛地理解如何应对世界各地的暴力种族冲突也很重要。“北爱尔兰模式”经常被认为是成功分享权力和建设和平的一个令人印象深刻的例子。我们的分析将提供对北爱尔兰选举民主质量的详细批评，这对世界各地的和平建设者(包括联合国等组织)将是重要的。我们还将最大限度地提高我们的工作与北爱尔兰普通公民、二级学校教师和学生、北爱尔兰报纸、纪录片制作人和北爱尔兰议会的相关性。

When citizens in Northern Ireland cast their vote in the 2015 Northern Ireland Assembly election, almost two decades will have passed since the Good Friday/ Belfast Agreement of 1998 established devolution and power-sharing. Thus, a rigorous analysis of the 2015 Assembly election will allow us to carefully consider the impact of the 'peace process' and the associated implementation of power-sharing governing structures. We investigate whether power-sharing has actually led to good quality electoral democracy for the people of Northern Ireland or has instead merely cemented and strengthened ethnic divisions. In our investigation, we address a number of specific questions: 1/ Have the power-sharing institutions maintained or reduced the importance of ethno-national (Protestant British versus Catholic Irish) campaigning and voting at election time? In our study we compare the strength of ethno-national voting over the 1998-2015 period by linking our proposed 2015 study to earlier ESRC funded studies in 1998 and 2003. We assess whether there has been an increase over time in 'cross bloc' voting (Protestants giving lower preference votes to nationalist parties, or Catholics giving lower preference votes to unionist parties). Also, we assess whether the importance of ethno-national ideology (voting on the basis of nationalist versus unionist beliefs) has become more or less important over time. We, furthermore, compare ethno-national ideology to non-conflict ideologies (such as economic left-right views or moral liberal-conservative views). 2/ Is electoral accountability possible? If there is only one party in government, it is easy for voters to identify who to hold responsible for government performance. In coalition governments it is harder for voters to clearly see which party to blame if things are going badly (or reward if things are going well). This difficulty is particularly acute when all of the parties are in Government and none are in Opposition, as is the case in Northern Ireland. We assess whether it is actually possible for voters to hold decision-makers to account in such a context. 3/ Is there an emotional basis to voting? Following on from questions 1 and 2 we assess the conditions under which voters rely on either ethno-national voting or peformance-based voting. We investigate the role of emotions and assess whether anger is associated with voting on the basis of the ethno-national conflict while fear is associated with performance-based voting. 4/ Does power-sharing discourage participation? Does the absence of a clear Opposition lead to reluctance to engage in politics? Also, does the sense that powersharing benefits one community over the other lead to alienation from politics, or non-electoral forms of political protest?5/ What are Northern Ireland citizens' attitudes to political reform (such as developing a strong Opposition that would hold the Government to account, or the regulation of sensitive cultural matters such as flag flying and parades)? How do citizens form such attitudes? Why is it that disagreement with suggested reform can spiral into violent street protest?Answering these questions is important for understanding how democracy operates in the sensitive setting of Northern Ireland. The answers are also important for our broader understanding of how to respond to violent ethnic conflict around the world. The 'Northern Ireland Model' is often held up as an impressive example of successful power-sharing and peace building. Our analysis will provide a detailed critique of the quality of electoral democracy in the Northern Ireland example that will be important for peace builders around the world (including organisations such as the United Nations). We will also maximise the relevance of our work for ordinary citizens in Northern Ireland, second level school teachers and students, Northern Ireland newspapers, documentary makers, and the Northern Ireland Assembly.