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The Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2022

2022 年北爱尔兰议会选举研究

基本信息

批准号：
ES/W010674/1
负责人：
John Garry
金额：
$ 71.67万
依托单位：
Queen's University Belfast
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2022 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FW010674%2F1
关键词：
Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study

项目摘要

Northern Ireland is a deeply divided place in which many political issues are contentious and can badly affect the political stability of the region. Three such divisive issues are currently important and are likely to be hotly debated in the run up to the next Northern Ireland Assembly election which is due to happen in May 2022. The first issue is often called 'the border down the Irish sea' or the 'sea border'. This relates to the new rules under which there are checks on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. These new rules arose from the deal that the UK government and the EU agreed when they were organising how the UK would leave the EU. Unionists in Northern Ireland (who typically see themselves as British and are from a Protestant background) are opposed to the new 'sea border' while nationalists (who typically describe themselves as Irish and are from a Catholic background) are more in favour. The second divisive issue concerns a possible referendum on the future of Northern Ireland. Should it stay part of the UK or should it unify with the rest of Ireland. Nationalists are in favour of a referendum, and increasingly so since the 'Brexit' referendum. Unionists are opposed. The third contentious issue relates to the stability of the way that the government is organised in Northern Ireland. The 'power-sharing executive' is made up of a coalition of the main unionist parties and nationalist parties. There are two prime ministers in the sense that there is a 'First Minister' and 'deputy First Minister'. In terms of law the two positions are equal but it has long been important for many unionists to hold the First Minister position and to keep it away from Sinn Fein. Whichever parties gets the most votes can hold the First Minister position. These three issues are likely to be especially important at the 2022 Assembly election. Politicians and commentators are likely to see the election as a major test of what voters think about these three issues. In our project we plan to help politicians, commentators and public make sense of the election results by conducting an objective survey of voters at the time of the election. We will use the information to provide a fair-minded and balanced picture of what the voters beliefs actually are on these three issue areas (as well as other issues). This will help public debate on how to interpret the election results and what the election results actually mean: exactly what message are the voters sending on these issues? As well as conducting surveys we also conduct research in which we allow citizens to really carefully think about these issues and come up with recommendations on them. Specifically, we conduct what we call a 'deliberative mini-public' which is basically getting a cross section of about 50 ordinary people from across Northern Ireland together to learn about and discuss the issues. We focus mainly on the issue of the 'sea border' because there is going to be a very important vote on this issue by the elected politicians in the Assembly in 2024. They will basically have to vote on whether to keep it or get rid of significant parts of it. We seek to help the public debate in the run-up to this important vote by conducting the 'mini-public' on this issue (and how this issue links to wider institutional and constitutional issues) and reporting what the ordinary citizens think once they have had a chance to really learn and consider and discuss the issues.

北爱尔兰是一个严重分裂的地方，许多政治问题存在争议，可能严重影响该地区的政治稳定。三个这样的分裂问题目前很重要，可能会在2022年5月举行的下一次北爱尔兰议会选举之前引发激烈辩论。第一个问题通常被称为“爱尔兰海的边界”或“海上边界”。这与新规则有关，根据该规则，对从英国运往北爱尔兰的货物进行检查。这些新规则源于英国政府和欧盟在组织英国如何退出欧盟时达成的协议。北爱尔兰的工会主义者(他们通常认为自己是英国人，来自新教背景)反对新的“海上边界”，而民族主义者(他们通常将自己描述为爱尔兰人，来自天主教背景)更赞成。第二个引起分歧的问题涉及可能就北爱尔兰的未来举行全民公投。它是应该留在英国，还是应该与爱尔兰的其他地区统一。民族主义者支持全民公投，自英国脱欧公投以来，民族主义者的支持率越来越高。工会主义者表示反对。第三个有争议的问题涉及北爱尔兰政府组织方式的稳定性。“权力分享执行者”是由主要的联合主义政党和民族主义政党组成的联盟。有两个总理，从这个意义上说，有一个‘第一部长’和‘副首席部长’。就法律而言，这两个职位是平等的，但对许多工会主义者来说，担任第一部长职位并使其远离新芬党长期以来一直很重要。任何获得最多选票的政党都可以担任第一部长一职。这三个问题在2022年的议会选举中可能尤为重要。政界人士和评论员可能会将此次选举视为选民对这三个问题看法的一次重大考验。在我们的项目中，我们计划通过对选举时的选民进行客观调查，帮助政客、评论员和公众了解选举结果。我们将利用这些信息提供一个公正和平衡的图景，说明选民在这三个问题领域(以及其他问题)的实际信念。这将有助于公众就如何解读选举结果以及选举结果的实际含义展开辩论：选民在这些问题上到底传递了什么信息？除了进行调查外，我们还进行研究，让公民真正仔细地思考这些问题，并提出建议。具体地说，我们进行了一次我们所说的“讨价还价的迷你公众”，基本上是把来自北爱尔兰各地的大约50名普通民众聚集在一起，了解和讨论这些问题。我们主要关注‘海上边界’问题，因为2024年议会中当选的政客将就这一问题进行非常重要的投票。他们基本上将不得不投票决定是保留还是取消它的重要部分。我们试图通过就这一问题(以及这一问题如何与更广泛的制度和宪法问题联系在一起)和报道普通公民一旦有机会真正学习、思考和讨论这些问题后的想法，来帮助在这一重要投票之前的公众辩论。