Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE)

凯奇将致力于在最初成功的基础上再接再厉，同时提供一些重要的创新。中心的总体主题将继续是“在全球经济中取得成功”，每个研究主题都将有一个“组织问题”：主题1：是什么解释了比较的长期增长表现？主题2：文化和机构如何帮助解释全球化世界中的发展和差异？主题3：如何改进对福祉的衡量以及对政策的影响？主题4：全球化和全球危机对西方民主政体的政策制定和经济和政治结果有何影响？在第一阶段，主题1的研究在建立欧洲和亚洲过去800年长期经济增长的详细量化图景方面取得了很好的进展，分析现在将扩大到非洲，从衡量实际人均国内生产总值转向用要素投入及其生产率来说明增长的来源。研究还将在更基本的层面上分析长期成功和失败的原因，调查涵盖前工业化时代到后工业化时代，着眼于地理、体制、贸易成本、人力资本和知识以及经济政策的作用。考虑到为维持金砖四国和危机后欧洲的追赶增长可能需要进行的改革，其中一些举措将具有前瞻性。主题2将继续审查体制变革的政治经济学，并调查与发展中国家企业业绩有关的供应方政策的其他方面。现在将扩大研究范围，并略微重新定位，以解决信任的作用，特别是考虑如何培育信任。这将使人们能够进一步调查，为什么基于华盛顿共识原则的改革计划效果不佳，除了可以洞察欠发达的根源。主题3将通过实地试验方案进一步发展其分析贫穷的创新方法的证据基础，并将继续扩大关于福祉的决定因素及其政策影响的证据基础。它将详细阐述通过认知障碍导致贫困导致不幸决策的方式，研究适应福祉冲击的含义，以及认知偏差和遗传学在福祉结果中所起的作用。主题4将以任命一名量化政治学教授后开始的工作为基础，作为推动CAGE工作的一项关键投资。这项研究考察了随着全球化的加剧，税收竞争对经济合作与发展组织成员国的资本流动和福利国家政策可行性的影响。这项研究突出了对全球化威胁的不同敞口。在第二阶段，对这些问题的研究将得到深化和扩展，使用正式分析和计量经济学来调查深具政治性的问题，因为这些问题涉及有争议的政策选择，并受到政治机构的制约。将研究的主题包括全球化和经济危机对选民偏好的影响，以及对不同类型发达经济体的再分配和福利支出的影响，以及对协调和自由市场经济体可用反应的各个方面进行更详细的调查。总而言之，CAGE的显著特征是它跨越了广义经济学内部的分歧，并探索了传统上被视为经济学边界的问题。CAGE研究和政策建议对背景敏感，并基于一种经验方法，这种方法不会武断地强加新古典经济学的先例。最后，CAGE能够为当前的政策问题带来知情的历史观点。

CAGE will aim to build on initial success while offering some important innovations. The overarching theme will continue to be 'succeeding in the global economy' and the Centre will be organised into research themes each with an 'organizing question': Theme 1: What Explains Comparative Long-Run Growth Performance?; Theme 2: How do Culture and Institutions Help to Explain Development and Divergence in a Globalizing World?; Theme 3: How Can the Measurement of Wellbeing be Improved and What are the Implications for Policy?; Theme 4: What are the Implications of Globalization and Global Crises for Policymaking and for Economic and Political Outcomes in Western Democracies? During phase 1, research in Theme 1 made excellent progress in establishing a detailed quantitative picture of the dimensions of long-run economic growth over the last 800 years in Europe and Asia and the analysis will now be extended to cover Africa, and move from measuring real GDP per capita to accounting for the sources of growth in terms of factor inputs and their productivity. Research will also analyse the reasons for success and failure over the long-run at a more fundamental level with investigations covering pre-industrial to post-industrial times looking at the roles of geography, institutions, trade costs, and human capital and knowledge as well as economic policy. Some of this will be forward-looking considering reforms that may be need to sustain catch-up growth in the BRICs and in post-crisis Europe. Theme 2 will continue to examine the political economy of institutional change and to investigate other aspects of supply-side policy relevant to enterprise performance in developing countries. Research will now be expanded and slightly re-orientated to address the role of trust and, in particular, to consider how trust can be nurtured. This will enable further investigation into why reform programmes such as those based on Washington-Consensus principles have not worked well besides permitting insights into the roots of underdevelopment. Theme 3 will further develop the evidence base for its innovative approach to the analysis of poverty with a programme of field experiments and will continue to augment the evidence base on the determinants of wellbeing and the policy implications thereof. It will elaborate the ways in which poverty via cognitive impairment leads to unfortunate decision-making, to examining implications of adaptation to well-being shocks and to the role that cognitive biases and genetics play in wellbeing outcomes. Theme 4 will build on the work begun after the appointment of a Professor of Quantitative Political Science as a key investment to further the work of CAGE. This research has examined the implications of tax competition for capital mobility and viability of welfare state policies in OECD countries as globalization has intensified. The research highlights differing exposure to globalization threats. During phase 2, research on these issues will be deepened and extended using formal analysis and econometrics to investigate issues which are deeply political in that they involve contentious policy choices and are conditioned by political institutions. The topics to be studied include the implications of globalization and economic crises for voter preferences and for redistribution and welfare spending in different types of advanced economy, and much more detailed investigation of the dimensions of the responses available to co-ordinated and liberal market economies.In conclusion, the distinctive feature of CAGE is that it crosses divides within economics broadly defined and explores issues traditionally regarded as at the boundaries of economics. CAGE research and policy advice is sensitive to context and based on an empirical approach that does not arbitrarily impose the priors of neoclassical economics. Finally, CAGE is able to bring an informed historical perspective to current policy issues.