An Atlas of Victorian Fertility Decline

该项目将通过编制《生育率地图集》，更好、更细致入微地了解维多利亚时代和爱德华七世时期英国和威尔士地区前所未有的生育率下降，该地图集将说明随着时间推移生育率和婚姻的各种衡量标准的地理模式。尽管对19世纪末20世纪初英格兰和威尔士的生育率下降进行了大量研究，但对这一重要社会发展的起源和演变的了解仍然出人意料地有限，主要是因为研究人员在很大程度上不得不依赖已发表的报告(这些报告列出了大的地理单位的数字，但没有给出生育率在女性中的分布情况)或耗时的地方性研究。然而，现在，整个英格兰和威尔士1851-1911年个人一级人口普查报表数据库的发布，使计算2000多个登记分区(RSD)以及社会阶层和职业群体的7个时间点的年龄特定生育率措施成为可能。这些措施将极大地增强我们对生育率下降的地点、时间和速度的了解，以及哪些群体带头采取了减少生育数量的行为。为了根据特定人口普查的结果计算特定年龄的生育率，需要计算人口普查前5年特定年龄妇女所生子女的数量。5岁以下与母亲同住的儿童的数量可以从人口普查时间表中确定，但必须包括普查前5年内出生但在统计之前死亡的儿童的额外数据，以便准确估计生育率。因此，每一个RSD的儿童和婴儿死亡人数将从注册总署署长的报告中收集，从而创建一个前所未有的地理规模的死亡数据库。将计算和绘制有助于总体生育率的其他指标，包括非婚生子女、父母双方都生活的儿童、处于生育年龄(15-49岁)的女性人口比例、已婚和与丈夫同居的女性人口比例以及结婚年龄指数。将在区域可持续发展水平上建立生育率、结婚和早期儿童死亡率的空间数据库，以便绘制模式图并进行空间和统计分析。使用空间内插创建一致的单位将允许更清楚地看到随时间推移的图案。这些地图将构成《生育率下降地图集》的基础，其中还将包括分析和说明性文本。由于所用比例的限制，印刷地图只能显示大致的图片，因此电子地图也将被设计出来，使观众能够放大到特定的区域，以更详细地了解模式和随时间变化的情况。当研究具有不同社会和经济部门的大城市时，这将特别有用。在线课程将让感兴趣的人更好地了解人口统计指标的计算和解释。多元空间分析将用于调查对生育率、婚姻率和早期死亡率的影响，并将结果发表在领先的学术期刊上。该项目还将比较人口普查报告中统计的父母及其子女的横截面生育率指标与1911年人口普查中已婚妇女回溯报告的生育率。地图集和学术论文将提供非常详细的数据，从而提出关于英格兰和威尔士生育率下降的“大问题”(生育率下降的根本驱动因素是新的知识形式还是文化变化？生育率下降主要是通过社会群体还是地理空间传播的？)比以往任何时候都要更彻底地解决问题。

This project will achieve a greater and more nuanced understanding of the unprecedented English and Welsh fertility decline of the Victorian and Edwardian through the production of an Atlas of Fertility which will illustrate geographical patterns in various measures of fertility and marriage over time. Despite considerable research into the late 19th and early 20th century decline of fertility in England and Wales, understanding of the origins and evolution of this important social development remains surprisingly limited, mainly because researchers have largely had to rely on published reports (which tabulate figures for large geographic units and give no information on how fertility is distributed among women) or on time-consuming local studies. Now, however, the release of a database of individual-level census returns for the whole of England and Wales for 1851-1911 makes feasible the calculation of age specific fertility measures at 7 points in time for over 2000 registration sub-districts (RSDs), as well as for social classes and occupational groups. Such measures will greatly enhance our knowledge of where, when and at what rate fertility declined, and which groups spearheaded the behaviours which reduced the number of children being born. To calculate age-specific fertility rates from the returns of a particular census, the number of children born to women of specific ages in the 5 years before the census is required. The number of children aged under 5 living with their mothers can be identified from the census schedules, but additional data on children born in the 5 years before the census but dying before they could be enumerated have to be included the counts in order to accurately estimate the fertility rates. The numbers of child and infant deaths for each RSD will therefore be collected from the Registrar General's reports, creating a mortality database at unprecedented geographic scale. Other measures contributing to overall fertility will be calculated and mapped, including illegitimacy, children living without both parents, the proportion of the female population who were in their fertile years (15-49), the proportion of these who were married and living with their husband, and an index of age of marriage.A spatial database of fertility, marriage and early child mortality will be constructed at RSD level, allowing patterns to be mapped and spatially and statistically analysed. The creation of consistent units using spatial interpolation will allow patterns over time to be more clearly seen. The maps will form the basis of the 'Atlas of Fertility Decline', which will also include analysis and explanatory text. Because of the scale used, printed maps will only be able to indicate a 'general' picture so electronic maps will also be devised to enable viewers to zoom in to particular areas to see the patterns and changes over time in greater detail. This will be of particular use when large cities, with different social and economic sectors, are being studied. Online courses will allow interested parties to gain a better understanding of the calculation and interpretation of demographic measures.Multivariate spatial analysis will be used to investigate the influences affecting fertility, nuptiality and early age mortality, and the results published in leading academic journals. The project will also compare the cross-sectional fertility measures, derived by counting parents and their children in the census returns, with the fertility rates reported retrospectively by married women in the 1911 census.The Atlas and academic papers will provide very detailed data, allowing the 'big questions' about fertility decline in England and Wales (were the fundamental drivers of decline new forms of knowledge or cultural changes? Did fertility decline spreads mainly through social groups or over geographical space?) to be addressed more thoroughly than ever before.