CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 2015-2020

三个核心问题将这一提议联系在一起：如何促进增长；如何分享增长以及如何维持增长1我们如何促进增长？我们计划制定一项新的增长计划，专注于支持最广泛意义上的创新，包括技术和组织上的创新。它将协调中心的增长工作议程，并跟进伦敦证交所增长委员会的政策建议。接下来，贸易计划将分析全球化的影响，重点是如何大幅改善英国的出口表现。一个核心政策问题是，英国未来与其他国家，特别是与欧盟(EU)和东南亚的关系将是什么。第三，教育与技能项目将使用竞争和组织理论的新工具，通过分析最近教育体系的转变来审查人力资本投资。两个核心问题是：教育改革奏效了吗--尤其是对弱势群体--以及，我们可以做些什么来改善中级技能基础，这是英国长期存在的弱点。2我们如何分享增长的好处？在全球金融危机之前的几十年里，经济增长的一个问题是，繁荣的分享非常不平等。为了研究不平等的空间维度，我们提出了一个新的城市计划。这将强调城市是关键的经济单元，并解决为什么英国经济增长如此之多地集中在东南部。鉴于英国所有主要政党承诺在英格兰内部下放权力，这是一个关键的政策问题。继城市发展委员会之后，政策重点将是地方政策制定者如何帮助他们的城市繁荣。在危机以来生产率大幅下降的同时，实际工资也出现了大幅下降--这在战后的英国经济衰退中是独一无二的。在危机爆发前，也出现了一些薪资停滞，就像美国在更长一段时间内所发生的那样。劳工计划将研究这些变化，以及它们是否与世界各地员工在GDP中所占份额的下降有关。我们将研究个人之间的收入、收入和财富不平等，但也会探讨为什么女性的进步停滞不前。在所有这些方面，我们感兴趣的不仅是解释为什么增长不平等，还有我们如何设计能够产生更多增长和更少不平等的“双重红利”的制度和政策。3我们想要什么样的增长？提高人均GDP仍然很重要，因为从长远来看，英国的平均收入会跟踪这一点。但增长必须是可持续的，它必须应对环境挑战，它应该扩大而不是破坏人们的幸福，它不应该以牺牲社会凝聚力为代价。应对气候变化既需要控制对温室气体的需求，也需要刺激清洁技术，我们提出了一系列针对这一目标的绿色增长项目。当然，影响人们生活的不仅仅是技术--规范人与人之间互动的信念和规范也是如此。增长涉及对人们的生活和社区产生重大影响的变化，往往会造成巨大的压力。我们的社区方案将调查经济变化(直接和间接通过移民等变化)对社会凝聚力的影响，并将帮助制定政策，确保增长惠及所有社区。CEP一直站在展望GDP之外的前沿，我们的幸福计划将雄心勃勃地开发一个生命周期中主观幸福感的模型，以显示父母养育、教育、就业、收入和健康等因素的量化因果影响。如果没有这样的知识，政策制定者就不可能有效地瞄准更大的福祉，即使这是他们的目标。

Three core questions bind this proposal together: how to foster growth; how to share growth and how to sustain growth 1 HOW CAN WE FOSTER GROWTH? We plan to develop a new Growth Programme focussing on bolstering innovation in its widest sense, both technological and organisational. It will co-ordinate the Centre's growth work agenda and follow up the LSE Growth Commission's policy proposals. Next, the Trade programme will analyse the impact of globalisation with a targeted focus on how to make a dramatic improvement in British export performance. A core policy question is what the UK's future relationship with other countries will be, in particular with the European Union (EU) and South-East Asia. Third, the Education and Skills programme will examine human capital investment by analysing the recent transformation of the educational system using new tools of competition and organisation theory. Two core questions are: have educational reforms worked - especially for the disadvantaged - and, what can be done to improve the intermediate skills base, a long-standing area of UK weakness.2 HOW CAN WE SHARE THE BENEFITS OF GROWTH? A problem with growth in the decades prior to the global financial crisis was that prosperity was shared very unequally. To study the spatial dimensions of inequality, we propose a new Urban programme. This will emphasise cities as key economic units and address why so much UK growth is concentrated in the South East.This is a key policy issue in the light of the commitment to decentralise power within England by all main UK parties. Following the City Growth Commission, the policy focus will be how local policy makers can help their cities prosper. Alongside the large productivity fall since the crisis, there has been a big fall in real wages - something unique in post-war UK recessions. Some wage stagnation occurred also in the run-up to the crisis, as it has over a longer time in the US. The Labour programme will examine these changes and whether they are linked to the declining share of GDP going to employees across the world. We will look at earnings, income and wealth inequalities across individuals, but also on why women's progress has stalled. In all these aspects, we are interested not just in explaining why growth is unequally shared, but also how we could design institutions and policies that generate a "double dividend" of more growth and less inequality. 3 WHAT KIND OF GROWTH DO WE WANT? Increasing GDP per capita remains important as UK average incomes track this over the long run. But growth must be sustainable, it must deal with environmental challenges, it should expand not undermine people's happiness and it should not be at the expense of social cohesion. Dealing with climate change requires both containing demand for greenhouse gases and stimulating clean technologies and we propose a wide portfolio of green growth projects directed to this. Of course, it is not just technology that affects people's lives - it is also the beliefs and norms that regulate the interactions between people. Growth involves change that has significant impacts on people's lives and neighbourhoods, often causing great stress. Our Community programme will investigate the impact of economic changes (both direct and indirect through changes like immigration) on social cohesion, and will help to develop policies to ensure that growth benefits all communities. CEP has been at the forefront of looking beyond GDP and our Wellbeing programme will ambitiously develop a model of subjective well-being over the life-course, in order to show the quantitative causal impact of factors like parenting, schooling, employment, income and health. Without such knowledge it is impossible for policy-makers to aim effectively at greater wellbeing, even if that is their objective.