Structural Reforms and European Integration: Theory, Measurement and Econometric Evidence

自2007年金融危机以来，大多数欧盟国家都无法回到危机前的增长道路。从许多欧洲国家的首都，我们不断听到结构性改革是经济增长的关键。尽管这一观点促使欧洲许多国家实施了改革方案，但我们对结构性改革仍缺乏清晰的认识。几乎只关注产品和劳动力市场监管（不利于贸易自由化等其他重要改革），导致了分析的缺乏。该项目旨在填补这一空白。结构性改革是否会带来增长的问题仍存在争议。对当前政策的一种批评背离了新凯恩斯主义对许多欧洲国家经历的低增长的解释。通过结构性改革改善供给侧的政策可能不会自动带来更多的需求和产出。结构性改革甚至可能导致需求减少，从而使经济活动处于更为压抑的水平。在这方面，一个关键问题是实施这些改革的时机。如果在衰退期间实施某些改革，可能会加剧衰退，并产生意想不到的副作用，削弱进行改革的政治决心。另一种对结构性改革的批评强调了确定一系列能够促进一国经济增长能力的结构性改革的重要性。结构改革通常包括向国际贸易、国际竞争和外国直接投资开放经济，将国有资产转移到私营部门，放松产品市场管制和旨在使劳动力市场更加灵活的措施。目前对劳动力市场和产品市场灵活性的关注是有限和不完整的。从“欧盟新成员国”（从共产主义过渡到市场经济体系的经济体）的经验中得出的一些关键教训是，需要实施一系列全面的结构性改革（不包括劳动力和产品市场），改革的顺序很重要。因此，改革对经济结果的最终影响是复杂的。我们的研究有三个目标：(1)构建一个反映欧盟28个成员国1990年至2015年广泛改革经验的面板数据集。(2)利用该数据集对结构性改革的决定因素进行研究。我们将分析初始条件、制度和政治发展的作用，以及经济增长对结构改革动态的影响。(3)研究结构性改革对经济增长和收入不平等的影响。这将使我们能够阐明之前提出的政策问题，即政策制定是否应侧重于结构性改革以促进增长，如果是，哪些改革最有益？这个项目将建立在三股文学的基础上。第一部分侧重于结构性改革的决定因素。特别是，我们将借鉴上世纪90年代中欧和东欧国家在转型过程中的改革经验。第二部分研究如何利用结构性改革促进经济增长的问题。这引发了一场关于供给侧政策与旨在提振总需求的政策孰优孰优的激烈辩论。第三部分是结构性改革与收入不平等关系的理论与实证研究。我们将使用一个新的和独特的数据集和先进的计量经济学方法来解决各种挑战。一个具有挑战性的关键问题是，结构性改革与经济增长和收入不平等之间可能存在双向因果关系。这里提出的研究项目的一个关键目标是解开这种复杂的因果关系。

Since the 2007 financial crisis, most EU countries have been unable to return to their pre-crisis growth path. From many European capitals, we hear incessantly that structural reforms are the key to economic growth. Although this view has led many countries in Europe into implementing reform programs, we still lack a clear understanding of structural reforms. The almost exclusive focus on product and labor market regulations (in detriment to other important reforms such as trade liberalization) has contributed to this dearth of analysis. This project aims to fill this gap. The issue of whether structural reforms lead to growth remains controversial. One critique of current policies departs from a New Keynesian interpretation of the low growth experienced in many European countries. Policies that improve the supply side through structural reforms may not automatically lead to more demand and output. Structural reforms may even lead to reduced demand and thus to a more repressed level of economic activity. In this context, one key issue is the timing of the implementation of these reforms. Some reforms, if implemented during a recession, can exacerbate it and, as an unintended side effect, can weaken the political resolve to undertake reforms. Another critique of structural reforms stresses the importance of identifying a range of structural reforms that can boost a country's economic capacity to grow. Structural reforms usually include opening up of the economy to international trade, to international competition and to foreign direct investment, the transfer of state assets to the private sector, product market deregulation and measures aimed at making labour markets more flexible. The current focus on labour market and product market flexibilities is limited and incomplete. Some key lessons from the experience of the "new EU members" (economies that transited from communism to a market-based system) is that there is a comprehensive range of structural reforms (beyond labour and product markets) that needs to be implemented and that the sequencing of reforms matters. Thus the ultimate impact of reforms on economic outcomes is complex. Our research has three objectives: (1) To construct a panel data set reflecting the extensive reform experience of the 28 EU members between 1990 and 2015. (2) To use this data set to provide a study of the determinants of structural reforms. We will analyse the role of initial conditions, institutions and political development, and of economic growth on the dynamics of structural reforms. (3) To investigate how structural reforms may affect economic growth and income inequality. This will allow us to shed light on the policy questions formulated earlier, i.e. should policymaking focus on structural reforms to boost growth, and if so, which individual reforms are most beneficial? This project will build on three strands of literature. The first one focuses on the determinants of structural reforms. Especially, we will exploit insights from the reform experience of Central and Eastern European countries during their transition in the 1990s. The second one studies the issue of how structural reforms can be used to boost economic growth. It has led to an intense debate on the relative merits of supply side policies against policies aimed at boosting aggregate demand. The third one focuses on the theory and empirics of the relationship between structural reforms and income inequality. We will use a new and unique data set and advanced econometric methodologies to tackle various challenges. One key challenging issue is that there may be a two-way causality between structural reforms, on the one hand, and economic growth and income inequality on the other. One key objective of the research project here proposed is to disentangle this complex causal relationship.