Peer-to-peer lending market in China: pricing, risk management and regulation

该项目是对中国P2P借贷市场的调查，中国是世界上最大的P2P借贷市场。P2P借贷是一种在线过程，借款人和贷款人直接匹配，不需要中介。它在全球范围内迅速增长，例如英国市场从2013年的5亿英镑上升到2015年的27亿英镑。2015年，中国P2P借贷市场有大约3600个在线借贷平台，贷款总额达9800亿元人民币（1176亿英镑）。私人投资者的资金供应以及个人和中小企业（估计占借款人的40%）的需求推动了这一趋势，填补了现有资金来源留下的缺口。许多使用该平台的借款人之前没有获得融资的经验。包括新平台、财富管理公司和银行在内的提供商在贷款决策中使用了各种线上和线下流程。2015年，中国出台了一项关于P2P行业监管的指导政策，但由于管理不善和贷款人欺诈，人们仍然对这个不断发展的行业的失败发生率表示担忧。人们还认识到，贷款风险的管理取决于对借款人报告的数据的核实。该研究项目将研究一家中国大型贷款机构从2010年成立到2016年12月（总计约80万份）的所有P2P信贷申请，收集借款人提供的支持其申请的所有信息。这包括他们的就业状况、收入、个人信息、信用记录和贷款目的的定量和定性数据。这些数据将使我们能够检查借款人如何展示自己以及这对贷款人行为的影响-即提供贷款的条件。利用这些数据，该研究将检验——影响贷款人决策的因素——向谁贷款，施加什么条件。贷款人如何区别对待借款人？-关于借款人的软信息如何影响贷款人的决定。这是否提高了他们对借款人风险的评估？-借款人是否有动机虚报收入，以提高获得贷款的机会或获得贷款的条件。该项目将检查借款人的误报是否会影响贷款人的决策和贷款结果。-出借人是否受到其他出借人决策的影响，如果是，他们是否可能理性运作。-作为外生冲击的外部事件信息（如对放贷者欺诈行为的公开）如何影响借款人和贷款人的行为。- 2015年的重大监管变化如何影响借款人和贷款人的行为。该项目的结果不仅与经济学和金融学的学术研究相关，而且与相关各方相关，包括-银行业监管机构-经济学家和金融监管政策制定者-中国央行当局，以及在P2P借贷日益成为重要活动的其他发展中国家和发达经济体- P2P平台提供商我们打算在整个项目中使用各种手段将结果有效地传达给所有感兴趣的各方。除了在高知名度的会议和期刊上发表论文外，我们还将使用专门的网站，社交媒体和电子媒体。项目结束时，将在英国和中国举办两场研讨会，邀请学者、贷款机构、监管机构和政策制定者进一步讨论和确定项目研究结果的政策含义。

The project is an investigation of the Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending market in China, the largest in the world. P2P lending is an online process where borrowers and lenders are matched directly without an intermediary. It has grown rapidly worldwide, with e.g. the UK market rising from £500 million in 2013 to £2.7 billion in 2015. The Chinese P2P lending market has some 3600 online lending platforms and loans totalling 980 billion yuan (£117.6 billion) in 2015. It is fuelled by a supply of funds from private investors and by demand both from individuals and from SMEs (estimated to make up to 40% of borrowers) for whom it fills a gap left by existing sources of funding. Many borrowers who use this platform have no previous experience of obtaining finance. A variety of on and offline processes are used in lending decisions by providers including new platforms and wealth management companies as well as banks. A guidance policy on regulation of the P2P sector was introduced in China in 2015, but concerns are still expressed about the incidence of failure in the growing sector, as a result of mismanagement and of fraud on the part of lenders. It is also recognised that the management of lending risks depends on verification of data reported by borrowers.The research project will look at all P2P credit applications to a major Chinese lender from its start-up in 2010 to December 2016 (some 800,000 in total), collecting all information provided by the borrowers in support of their applications. This includes both quantitative and qualitative data about their employment status, income, personal details, their credit histories and loan purposes. The data will enable us to examine how borrowers present themselves and the effect of this on lender behaviour - i.e. the conditions of loans offered. Using this data, the research will examine- The factors that influence lenders' decisions - who to lend to, what conditions to impose. How do lenders discriminate between borrowers? - How soft information about borrowers affects lenders' decisions. Does it improve their assessment of borrower risk?- Whether there is an incentive for borrowers to misrepresent their income in order to improve their chances of obtaining a loan or the terms offered. The project will examine whether misreporting by borrowers affects lender decisions and loan outcomes.- Whether lenders are affected by other lenders' decisions, and if so whether they are likely to operate rationally.- How information about external events (e.g. publicity given to frauds on lenders) as exogenous shocks affects borrower and lender behaviours.- How major regulation changes in 2015 have affected borrower and lender behaviours.The results of the project will be relevant not only to academic research in economics and finance, but also to interested parties including- Regulators of the banking sector- Economists and policymakers in financial supervision- Central bank authorities in China, and in the other developing and developed economies where P2P lending has increasingly become a significant activity- Providers of P2P platformsWe intend to communicate results effectively to all interested parties throughout the project using various means. In addition to presentation of papers at high-profile conferences and journal publication, we will use a dedicated website, social media, and electronic media. At the close of the project, two workshops will be held in the UK and China with invited academicians, lenders, regulators, policymakers to further discuss and identify the policy implications of the project's findings.