A World of Rust Belts?: Deindustrialisation and its Impacts in Cities in the Global South

唐纳德•特朗普（Donald Trump）当选和英国退欧表明，北大西洋选民要求逆转三十年来的经济、文化和政治一体化。一种根深蒂固的流行说法助长了人们对全球化的不满，即福克Fröbel及其同事在1980年概述的“新的国际劳动分工”，已导致高薪工厂工作从经合组织（OECD）的工业中心向发展中国家转移。本研究项目旨在通过质疑金砖国家和其他“新兴”国家以牺牲全球北方的就业和工业为代价的崛起的叙述，丰富我们对当代全球化的经济和城市地理的理解。它将记录南亚、撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲的去工业化，并为去工业化的新国际地理提供细致入微的理解。“反全球化”运动在1999年世界贸易组织部长级会议上的“西雅图之战”达到了顶峰。这场运动的参与者各不相同，但一个共同的论调是，在一个自由化的全球经济中，发展中国家的生产商将难以与经合组织的龙头企业竞争。然而，贸易自由化的一个后果是活动人士未能预料到的，那就是南南贸易的迅速扩张。联合国贸易和发展会议2015年发布的题为“全球价值链和南南贸易”的报告显示，从1990年到2010年，南南贸易每年增长约15%，大部分南南内部贸易源自东亚。由于面临来自东亚的竞争，南亚、撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲许多城市的当地工业严重下滑（Rodrik 2016）。经济学家Dani Rodrik将发展中国家的去工业化称为“过早”，因为与经合组织观察到的模式相反，它发生在从制造业向服务业主导的增长转变之前，他表明，它比美国和英国等发达工业化国家的去工业化更为严重。这项拟议的研究是关于全球南方国家在城市规模上去工业化的第一个比较研究项目。它将重点关注三个去工业化表现不同的城市——印度的坎普尔；坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆；和阿根廷的布宜诺斯艾利斯——每个城市将聚焦三个主题。城市/区域规划和发展——这将侧重于政策制定者提出去工业化问题的方式，以及他们是否/如何寻求解决这个问题。在某些情况下，它们可能试图保护国内工业/劳工，而在其他情况下，它们可能只是设法减轻其影响。这将通过政策文件和对前任和现任政府官员的采访来了解。商业战略、产业政策和创新——将确定允许某些行业/公司在每个城市保持运营的战略。可能性包括降低劳动力成本、投资于技术和提高生产力、与较有实力的公司合资和/或分包给非正规部门生产者。它还将评估旨在帮助国内企业的政策是否成功。这将通过与公司和行业团体的代表的面谈来得知。社会福利——这部分研究确定了去工业化对劳动者的影响，并记录了他们的反应。它侧重于劳动者适应不断变化的劳动力市场的方式（例如再培训或转向非正规部门活动），并特别注意妇女和男子受到不同影响的方式（例如，随着男性可获得的工厂工作消失，妇女对非正规经济的参与可能有所增加）。

The election of Donald Trump and Brexit signal a demand among voters in the North Atlantic for the reversal of three decades of economic, cultural and political integration. Discontent with globalisation is fuelled by the deeply-rooted popular narrative that the "new international division of labour" - as outlined by Folker Fröbel and colleagues in 1980 - has resulted in the offshoring of well-paying factory jobs from the industrial heartlands of the OECD to developing countries. This research project seeks to enrich our understanding of the economic and urban geography of contemporary globalization by troubling this narrative of the rise of BRICS and other 'emerging' countries at the expense of jobs and industry in the global North. It will document deindustrialisation in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and inform a nuanced understanding of the new international geography of deindustrialisation.The 'alter-globalization' movement reached its zenith at the 'battle of Seattle' at the 1999 World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference. The movement's participants were diverse, but one common refrain was that in a liberalised global economy producers in developing countries would struggle to compete against lead-firms in the OECD. However, a consequence of trade liberalization that activists failed to anticipate was the rapid expansion of South-South trade. A 2015 report published by UNCTAD entitled 'Global Value Chains and South-South Trade' shows that from 1990-2010 South-South trade increased ~15% annually and the majority of intra-South trade originates in East Asia. As a result of exposure to competition from East Asia, local industry in many cities in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America has been in severe decline (Rodrik 2016). Economist Dani Rodrik terms deindustrialisation in developing countries 'premature' because in contrast to the pattern observed in the OECD, it has taken place prior to a shift from manufacturing to service-sector led growth, and he shows it has been more severe than deindustrialisation in advanced-industrialised countries such as the US and UK. This proposed research is the first comparative research project on deindustrialisation in the global South situated at the urban scale. It will focus on three cities where deindustrialisation has manifest itself differently - Kanpur, India; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; and Buenos Aires, Argentina - and it will focus on three themes in each city.1. Urban/regional planning and development - This will focus on the ways in which policy makers problematised deindustrialisation, and whether/how they sought to address it. In some cases they may have tried to protect domestic industry/labourers, while in other cases they may have simply sought to mitigate its impacts. This will be informed by policy documents and interviews with past and present government officials.2. Business strategy, industrial policy and innovation - Strategies that allowed certain industries/firms to remain operational in each city will be identified. Possibilities include reducing labour costs, investing in technology and enhancing productivity, entering a joint venture with a more powerful firm, and/or subcontracting to informal sector producers. It will also evaluate whether policies that sought to assist domestic firms were successful. This will be informed by interviews with representatives of companies and industry groups.3. Social welfare - This segment of the research determines the impact of deindustrialisation on labourers and documents their responses. It focuses on the ways labourers have adapted to changing labour markets (eg retraining or shifting to informal-sector activity), and it pays particular attention to the ways women and men have been affected differently (eg women's participation in the informal economy may have increased as the factory jobs available to men have disappeared).