Modelling housing career trajectories in Great Britain

1.目的这个项目旨在加深我们对人们在21世纪英国住房市场的道路是如何变化的理解。背景2017年住房白皮书指出，许多英国人无法获得合适的住房，并承诺政府将“修复我们破碎的住房市场”。一个关键问题是，越来越多的人无法通过拥有住房、进入更理想的社区并随着年龄的增长积累住房财富来在传统的住房职业道路上取得进展。这在财富持有量和生活质量方面造成了代内和代际的不平等。关于世代租房的公开辩论突出表明，近几十年来，人口结构变化、经济压力(例如低收入、学生债务和工作不安全)以及有限的住房负担能力导致年轻人的住房状况恶化。年轻一代的成年人发现，与前几代人相比，他们更难拥有住房，也更难升级到更理想的住所和社区。这意味着住房系统中的社会流动性正在下降，因为年轻人的住房条件越来越依赖于他们是否能获得家庭支持。与此同时，长期存在的政策担忧是，随着繁华地区的房主从房价上涨中获利，住房财富在英国各地的分配正变得更加不均，而不那么繁荣地区的租房者和房主却得不到这种收益。这些差距可能会对人口流动产生不利影响，还会破坏未来养老金、福利和社会护理的资金基础的稳定。数据限制意味着，支撑这些辩论的证据存在重大缺陷。许多研究没有着眼于个人住房职业发展之间的不平等，因为它们依赖于在某个时间点进行的调查数据。此外，大多数数据集中的小样本和有限的财富衡量标准阻碍了对(I)住房实现程度的地理模式以及(Ii)谁随着年龄积累住房财富方面的差异的了解。研究设计这项研究将通过对ESRC支持的调查和20年来几乎所有成年人口的消费者大数据的相互关联分析，检查住房职业中的代际、社会经济和空间差异，从而克服这些问题。该项目将回答以下问题：住房职业轨迹的模式--根据(I)住房所有权状况、(Ii)邻里优势水平和(Iii)住房财富持有量--在出生队列、社会经济群体和空间之间有何不同？数据分析将分为两部分。Strand 1将使用调查数据建立自1998年以来不同人口群体的住房职业发展和财富轨迹的详细模型。这些结果将被反馈到Strand 2，它将利用在伦敦大学学院预先准备的选举和消费者登记大数据来描述、建模和可视化整个英国成年人口的住房职业发展模式。对社会的好处这个项目将提供几个公共利益，与ESRC支持优先住房领域的社会相关研究的目标一致：a.更好地理解住房财富不平等的起源和性质。这将为国家和地方政策以及关于住房、财产税以及如何为福利和社会护理提供资金的公共辩论提供信息。住房机会的代际/社会分化的新证据。这将为关于社会流动性和促进更大的代际公平所需的政策措施的辩论提供信息。C.对使用消费者数据进行住房研究的价值和代表性挑战进行技术评估。这将提高对这一研究资源的理解。

1. AimsThis project aims to develop our understanding of how people's pathways through the housing market are changing in 21st Century Britain.2. BackgroundThe 2017 Housing White Paper noted that many Britons cannot access suitable housing and it committed the government to "fixing our broken housing market". A key problem is that a growing proportion of people are unable to 'progress' along a traditional housing career path by moving into homeownership, more desirable neighbourhoods and accumulating housing wealth as they age. This creates intra- and inter-generational inequalities in wealth holdings and quality of life. Public debates about Generation Rent highlight how demographic change, economic pressure (e.g. low incomes, student debt and job insecurity) and constrained housing affordability have caused young adults' housing position to deteriorate in recent decades. Younger cohorts of adults are finding it harder than previous generations to enter homeownership and 'trade up' to more desirable dwellings and neighbourhoods. This means that social mobility in the housing system is declining as young people's housing attainments become increasingly dependent on whether they have access to family support. At the same time, there is longstanding policy concern that housing wealth is becoming more unevenly distributed across Britain as homeowners in prosperous areas reap gains from house price inflation that are denied to renters and owners in less buoyant places. These disparities could have an adverse impact on population mobility and also destabilise the future funding basis for pensions, welfare and social care.Data constraints mean that there are significant deficiencies in the evidence underpinning these debates. Many studies do not look at inequalities between individuals' housing career development as they rely on data from surveys conducted at one point in time. Furthermore, small samples and the limited wealth measures in most datasets impede knowledge of (i) geographical patterns in housing attainments as well as disparities in (ii) who accumulates housing wealth with age.3. Research designThis study will overcome these issues by examining generational, socioeconomic and spatial disparities in housing careers through interrelated analyses of ESRC supported surveys and consumer Big Data pertaining to almost the entire adult population over a 20-year period. The project will answer the following question: how do patterns of housing career trajectories - defined in terms of (i) dwelling ownership status, (ii) level of neighbourhood (dis)advantage and (iii) housing wealth holdings - vary across birth cohorts, socioeconomic groups and space?Data analysis will be divided into two strands. Strand 1 will use survey data to build detailed models of the housing career progression and wealth trajectories of different population groups since 1998. These results will be fed forward into Strand 2, which will harness Electoral and Consumer Register Big Data pre-prepared at UCL to describe, model and visualize patterns of housing career development across the entire adult population of Great Britain.4. Benefits to societyThis project will deliver several public benefits that align with ESRC's aim to support socially relevant research in the priority field of housing:a. An improved understanding of the origins and nature of housing wealth inequalities. This will inform national and local policy and public debates about housing, property taxation, and how to finance welfare and social care.b. New evidence about 'Generation Rent' and intergenerational/social divisions in housing opportunities. This will inform debates about social mobility and the policy measures needed to promote greater intergenerational fairness. c. A technical assessment of the value and representational challenges of using consumer data for housing research. This will improve the uptake of this research resource.