Theoretical Sampling Design Options for a New Birth Cohort

《2017纵向研究战略评论》(Davis-Kean，Chambers，Davidson，Kleinert，Ren and Tang，2018)就提升和投资英国纵向研究机会的创新方式提出了一系列建议。对ESRC的关键建议之一是委托采用加速纵向设计的新出生队列。加速纵向设计同时涉及多个队列，每个队列从不同的年龄开始，然后随着时间的推移跟随一系列排列的队列分组。在这份提案中，我们调查了高级设计选项以及在英国加速纵向设计的可行性，这些设计从出生后不久开始，第二个或多个队列从童年开始，随着时间的推移，至少持续到18岁。2017年纵向研究战略回顾提到“关键年龄段(待定)”。考虑到从实际上并不存在的“行政脊梁”进行抽样的目的，我们可以假设一个年龄点将是0，例如从出生登记中。儿童的另一个主要行政来源是学校人口普查，将5岁(开始义务教育)作为额外的年龄点是很自然的。第三个年龄点可能是16岁(义务教育结束)。我们注意到，由于缺乏抽样框架，在怀孕期间跟踪队列的问题可能是有问题的。更具体地说，我们在以下方面调查了加速纵向设计与传统单一队列的理论方面：统计能力和估计的精确度，以便能够检查关键研究问题；考虑地理因素和英国国家和地区层面以及脆弱亚组的足够样本大小(包括助推器抽样)；多队列下的统计分析；跨队列和跨队列测量的可比性；缺失数据和损耗。

The 2017 Longitudinal Studies Strategic Review (Davis-Kean, Chambers, Davidson, Kleinert, Ren and Tang, 2018) made a series of recommendations on innovative ways to enhance and to invest in opportunities for longitudinal research in the UK. One of the key recommendations to the ESRC was to commission a new birth cohort with an accelerated longitudinal design. The accelerated longitudinal design engages multiple cohorts simultaneously, each one starting at a different age and then following a 'suite' of aligned cohort groupings over time. In this proposal we investigate high-level design options and feasibility for an accelerated longitudinal design in the UK for a cohort of individuals starting soon after birth and a second or multiple cohorts starting in childhood and following each one over time, at least to age 18. The 2017 Longitudinal Studies Strategic Review mentions 'pivotal age periods (to be determined)'. Given the aim of sampling from an 'administrative spine' which in practice does not exist, we can assume that one age point would be 0, e.g. from the registry of births. Another key administrative source for children is the School Census and it is natural to take the age of 5 (the start of compulsory schooling) as an additional age point. A third age point could be the age of 16 (the end of compulsory schooling). We note that the issue of following a cohort during pregnancy may be problematic due to a lack of a sampling frame. More specifically, we investigate theoretical aspects of an accelerated longitudinal design versus a traditional single cohort with respect to: statistical power and precision of estimates to be able to examine key research questions; consideration of geographical aspects and adequate sample sizes at the UK national and regional level and in vulnerable subgroups (including booster sampling); statistical analysis under multiple cohorts; comparability of measures across cohorts and across sweeps; missing data and attrition.