Investigating an Economic Longevity Dividend

从现在到2050年，预计世界上几乎每个国家的平均年龄和65岁以上人口的比例都会增加。这一统计数据构成了老龄化社会叙事的基础，该叙事认为，由于老年人将会更多，经济增长将放缓，财政支出将因他们更高的养老金和医疗成本而增加。这一话题的重要性得到了英国政府的认可，英国政府在2017年发布的产业战略中将老龄化社会列为四大挑战之一。老龄化社会的叙事往往主导着讨论，并聚焦于老年人增加的负面后果。然而，相对较少受到关注的是，不仅老年人越来越多，而且我们的老龄化方式正在发生变化。平均而言，我们活得更长，也更健康。例如，英国公民的平均年龄从未如此之大，但也从未活得如此之久。这并不是一个明确的老龄化社会。这对个人来说是好消息，但对经济也应该是好消息。这项研究的目的是更清楚地确定这种更好的老龄化效应是如何起作用的(一种长寿效应)，量化它的重要性，并专注于能够帮助支持它的政策措施，以便作为个人和作为一个社会我们都能受益。换句话说，这项研究试图更好地了解已实现的预期寿命增长、健康长寿的价值，以及如何最大限度地提高经济收益，从而实现更健康更长寿的积极经济成果，而不是老龄化社会的负面经济后果。

Between now and 2050 nearly every country around the world is expected to see an increase in its average age and in the proportion of the population aged over 65. This statistic forms the basis of an ageing society narrative that says because there will be more old people, economic growth will slow and fiscal expenditures increase due to their higher pension and health costs. The importance of this topic is recognized by the UK Government who have made an ageing society one of their 4 Grand Challenges in their Industrial Strategy (published in 2017).The ageing society narrative tends to dominate discussion and focus on the negative consequences of there being more old people. However, what receives relatively little attention is the fact that it isn't just there are more old people but how we are ageing is changing. We are, on average, living longer and are healthier for longer. The average UK citizen, for instance, has never been older but also has never had so long left to live. This is not unambiguously an ageing society. This is good news at the individual level but should also be good news for the economy.The purpose of this research is to identify more clearly how this better ageing effect works (a longevity effect), to quantify how important it is, and to focus on policy measures that can help support it so that both as individuals and as a society we gain. In other words, the research seeks to understand better the gains in life expectancy that have been achieved, the value of healthy longevity, and how to maximize the economic gains so as to achieve the positive economic outcomes from longer healthier lives rather than negative economic consequences of an ageing society.