Perceived threats and 'stampedes': a relational model of collective fear responses

这项研究将解决人们如何集体应对感知紧急状态的问题。无论是在英国还是在全球，恐怖袭击的发生都与集体飞行事件的增加有关，这些事件通常被称为“踩踏事件”。大多数都是虚惊一场。以2017年牛津街（Oxford Street）的事件为例，数百人以为是枪声就跑开了，还有更多人看到有人在跑，也加入了进来，产生了一连串的次要影响。这些事件通常会让当事人感到痛苦。其中一些会导致受伤甚至死亡。对感知到的敌对威胁的“踩踏”反应提出了以下问题：何时以及如何将信号视为威胁？人们何时以及如何逃离？他们什么时候跟随（或忽略）别人？其他团体（当局、应急服务）在通报威胁方面的作用是什么？这些事件什么时候变得混乱？然而，尽管这些事件具有社会和心理意义，但人们对它们的理解却很少，目前还缺乏足够的理论认识。过度警惕的解释是必要的，但还不够。他们既没有解释威胁感知是如何共享的，也没有解释“踩踏”的集体性质。尽管在公众话语中占主导地位，但“群体恐慌”的解释也不充分。他们无法解释在这些撤离事件中存在歧视和限制的证据。该项目将提供第一个关于人类“踩踏”的性质和动态的系统证据，以应对感知到的敌对威胁。我们将开发一个新的模型，基于社会认同方法（我们的心理群体成员理论）和社会评价理论（侧重于我们从他人的反应中推断出的社会和情感信息）。我们认为，“我们是谁”——在不同的背景下会有所不同——塑造了对威胁、情感评估和社会影响的看法。一种独特的说法是，像这样的群体事件是群体间的关系。因此，除了研究人群成员的感知和行为外，我们还将研究应急响应者的感知和行为，以及响应者的沟通行为与公众行为之间的关系。以前在理解对敌对威胁的“踩踏”反应方面的限制是由于缺乏适当的方法和缺乏理论。我们将通过一个包括三个方面的研究方案来解决这些限制。首先，案例研究链将系统地描述和比较已知的例子（例如，2018年尼斯鞭炮“踩踏事件”，2018年韦斯特菲尔德购物中心的疏散），并使用采访和档案数据对当代和历史事件进行详细分析。其次，使用虚拟现实的实验将使我们能够操纵和控制变量，如群体关系和规范，并测量飞行反应的方向和速度，以便系统地测试我们关于身份和评估角色的假设。第三，鉴于应急响应人员和当局在传播威胁方面的作用，我们将观察他们的演习，并进行实地实验，以衡量他们的影响（有意和无意），包括他们的信息的影响。这些研究将使我们能够确定何时以及如何将信号视为威胁，人们是否以及如何逃离，人们何时跟随（或忽视）他人，以及紧急服务在其中的作用。了解公众对感知到的紧急情况的反应，对紧急政策和做法以及公共辩论都有影响。因此，除了新的理论模型，该项目的成果将包括新的应急指导，以及关于这一主题的新的公共话语。

This research will address the question of how people respond collectively to acute states of perceived emergency. Both in the UK and globally, the occurrence of terrorist attacks has been associated with an increase in collective flight incidents - often called 'stampedes'. Most have been false alarms. In the case of the incidents in Oxford Street, in 2017, for example, hundreds ran from what they thought was gunshots, and many more joined in when they saw people running, in a cascade of secondary effects. These events are often distressing for those involved. Some of them result in injury and even deaths. 'Stampedes' in response to perceived hostile threats raise the following questions: When and how is a signal perceived as threatening? When and how do people flee? When do they follow (or ignore) others? What is the role of other groups (authorities, emergency services) in communicating threat? When do these incidents become disorderly?Yet despite their social and psychological significance, these incidents are poorly understood, and an adequate theoretical understanding is currently lacking. Explanations in terms of hypervigilance are necessary but insufficient. They don't explain either how threat perceptions are shared or the collective nature of 'stampedes'. Explanations in terms of 'crowd panic' are also inadequate, despite dominating public discourse. They cannot account for the evidence of discrimination and restraint in these evacuation events.This project will provide the first systematic evidence on the nature and dynamics of human 'stampedes' in response to perceived hostile threats. We will develop a new model, based on the social identity approach (a theory of our psychological group memberships) and social appraisal theory (which focuses on the social and emotional information we infer from others' responses). We argue that 'who we are' - which can vary across contexts - shapes perceptions of threat, emotional appraisal, and social influence. A distinctive claim is that crowd events such as these are intergroup relationships. Therefore, as well as examining crowd members' perceptions and behaviour, we will examine those of emergency responders, and the relationship between responders' communicative acts and public behaviours. Previous limitations in understanding 'stampedes' in response to hostile threats are due to a lack of appropriate methodology as much as the paucity of theory. We will address these limitations through a programme of research comprising three strands. First, a case study strand will systematically describe and compare known examples (e.g., Nice fire-cracker 'stampede' of 2018, evacuation at Westfield shopping centre, 2018), as well as provide detailed analysis, using interview and archive data, of a contemporary and a historical incident. Second, experiments using Virtual Reality will allow us to manipulate and control variables, such as group relationships and norms, and to measure direction and speed of flight response, in order to test systematically our hypotheses about the roles of identity and appraisal. Third, given the role of emergency responders and authorities in communicating threat, we will observe their exercises and carry out a field experiment to measure their influence (intended and unintended), including effects of their messages. Together these studies will enable us to determine when and how a signal is perceived as threatening, whether and how people flee, when people follow (or ignore) others, and the role of the emergency services in this.Understandings of public responses to perceived emergencies have implications for emergency policy and practice and for public debate. Therefore, as well as a new theoretical model, outcomes from this project will include new emergency guidance, and new public discourse on this topic.