Home Office / ADR UK Feasibility Study Lead Academic

自2014年以来，英格兰和威尔士的严重暴力犯罪率一直在上升。尽管这些犯罪只占全部犯罪的1%左右，但它们对个人和整个社会造成了不成比例的伤害。正因为如此，处理严重的暴力是英国政府和警方的首要任务。人们日益认识到，暴力是可以预防的，预防暴力犯罪的最有效方法与警务或刑事司法系统没有直接关系。旨在减少暴力的新战略力求解决上游风险因素，从而防止青少年中犯罪行为的发展。然而，目前几乎没有证据表明哪种干预措施是有效的。在未来10年里，总共向青年捐赠基金（YEF）拨款2亿英镑，以支持早期干预；对这些干预措施的评价是该方案的一个组成部分。为了产生高质量的证据，对干预措施进行严格的评估至关重要。有两个关键问题将影响到这种评价的质量。首先，需要有效、可靠的数据来源，以衡量实施干预之前和之后的结果。理想情况下，这些数据应该包括短期和长期的结果。其次，重要的是要有一个匹配良好的对照组。如果没有这一点，就很难对干预的效果得出任何明确的结论，因为犯罪率的任何变化都可能是由其他因素引起的（即可能不是由于干预本身）。考虑到这一点，司法部（MoJ）和教育部（DfE）正在将关键的国家数据集连接起来，将来自刑事司法系统的数据（包括警察、监狱和法庭记录）与来自教育系统的数据（如学业成绩、缺勤和排斥）结合在一起。链接的数据集将包含大约2000万人15年的数据，并有可能形成一种资源，以便对YEF和其他干预措施进行强有力的评估。这项研究有两个主要因素。在第一阶段，我们将评估和记录MoJ-DfE关联数据集的质量和范围。在第二阶段，我们将研究使用关联数据集生成匹配对照组的可行性，以评估旨在降低年轻人犯罪率的干预措施；我们将比较两种不同的统计方法。我们的发现将为数据集的未来发展和使用提供信息。

Rates of serious violent crime in England and Wales have been increasing since 2014. Although these offences account for only around 1% of total crime, they cause disproportionate harm to individuals and society as a whole. Because of this, tackling serious violence is a UK Government and police priority. It is increasingly recognised that violence is preventable and that the most effective ways to prevent violent crime are not directly related to the policing or criminal justice systems. New strategies aimed at reducing violence seek to tackle upstream risk factors, thus preventing the development of offending behaviour among young people. However, there is currently little evidence regarding what types of intervention are effective. A total of £200 million has been granted to the Youth Endowment Fund (YEF) over the next 10 years to support early interventions; evaluation of these interventions is an integral part of the programme.In order to generate high quality evidence, rigorous evaluation of interventions is crucial. There are two key issues that will impact on the quality of such evaluations. Firstly, there is a need for valid, reliable data sources - that measure outcomes prior to and after the intervention has been implemented. Ideally, the data would include both short-term and long-term outcomes. Secondly, it is important to have a well-matched comparison group. Without this, it is difficult to draw any clear conclusions about the effect of the intervention because any changes in rates of offending could arise as a result of other factors (i.e. may not be due to the intervention itself). With this in mind, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and Department for Education (DfE) are linking key national datasets, bringing together data from the criminal justice system, including police, prison, and court records, with data from the education system, such as school attainment, absence and exclusions. The linked dataset will contain around 15 years' of data on around 20 million individuals and will have the potential to form a resource to allow robust evaluation of YEF and other interventions.This study has two main elements. In the first stage we will evaluate and document the quality and scope of the MoJ-DfE linked dataset. In the second stage we will investigate the feasibility of using the linked dataset to generate matched control groups for the purpose of evaluating interventions aimed at reducing offending rates in young people; we will compare two different statistical approaches to doing this.Our findings will inform the future development and use of the dataset.