Reducing the Unanticipated Crime Harms of COVID-19 Policies

新冠肺炎危机正在改变犯罪的形态。借鉴犯罪学，这项研究将为循证政策和实践提供参考。封锁要求人们呆在家里，导致家庭暴力和虐待儿童的增加。然而，社会距离意味着警方逮捕的嫌疑人减少了：在更需要的时候减少了服务。新冠肺炎让诈骗者可以通过短信、电子邮件和在线与人面对面交流。远程工作和在线休闲活动、休假和经济困难，为各种类型的在线犯罪提供了更多的潜在目标。包括老年人和残疾人在内的弱势群体面临的风险更大。然而，哈佛大学的一项研究(Kissler等人科学，4月14日)表明，如果没有疫苗，社会距离可能会持续到2022年，或许2024年。因此，我们将预测长期、渐进式或周期性退出策略的犯罪影响。我们还将预测危机后的情景，试图维持入室盗窃等犯罪活动的下降，以避免它们恢复正常。我们将使用(1)国家警察数据，(2)来自三个警察合作伙伴的详细数据，(3)来自行业的欺诈和电子犯罪数据，以及(4)来自其他机构的来源，如Childline(针对未报告的犯罪)。变动前/变动后分析将结合使用时间序列和空间建模。在国家和国际范围内进行嵌套力水平分析将使我们能够衡量可伸缩性。我们有警察和行业合作伙伴、国家(内政部、国家警察总长理事会、警察学院)和国际顾问。其目的是为政策和实践提供信息，产生16项交付成果，包括政策和实践简报和研究文章。

The COVID-19 crisis is changing the shape of crime. Drawing on crime science, this research will inform evidence-based policy and practice. Lockdown requires people to stay home, leading to domestic violence and child abuse increases. Yet social distancing means police are arresting fewer suspects: reduced services at time of greater need. COVID-19 gives fraudsters a 'conversation starter' to approach people in-person, via text, email and online. Remote working and online leisure activities, furloughs and financial difficulties, provide more potential targets for online crimes of various types. Vulnerable groups including the elderly and disabled are more at risk. Yet a Harvard study (Kissler et al. Science, 14 April) suggests that, absent a vaccine, social distancing may continue into 2022, perhaps 2024. So we will anticipate crime effects of prolonged, graduated or cyclical exit strategies. We will also anticipate post-crisis scenarios, seeking to sustain declines in crimes like burglary, to avoid them returning to 'normal'.We will use (1) national police data, (2) detailed data from three police partners, (3) fraud and e-crime data from industry, and (4) sources from other agencies such as Childline (for unreported crime). Pre/post-change analysis will use a combination of time-series and spatial modelling. Nesting force-level analysis in the national and international context will allow us to gauge scalability. We have police and industry partners, national (Home office, National Police Chief's Council, College of Policing) and international advisors. The aim is to inform policy and practice, producing 16 deliverables including policy and practice briefings and research articles.