Real-time evaluation of the effects of Covid-19 and policy responses on consumer and small business finances

2019冠状病毒病大流行以及政府采取的前所未有的激进经济政策应对措施，对消费者金融和小企业金融造成了严重破坏。现在迫切需要及时评估破坏的程度和最近政策创新的有效性。该项目将使用一套新的、独特的实时、高频数据来评估这些数据，比传统的ONS数据源更快。该项目涉及从大量交易数据中创建消费者和企业行为的新的实时经济特征。具体来说，这项工作将评价对消费者财务（收入减少、不偿还债务、储蓄和支出模式）和小企业财务（营业额和业务连续性）的影响。这项研究将与四个组织共同进行。首先，与英国消费金融部门监管机构金融市场行为监管局合作，评估对消费者债务的影响，并评估FCA的政策应对措施，即《2020年消费者信贷（Covid-19临时支持措施）令》（CCO220）和3个月抵押贷款减免计划。其次，与全国雇员储蓄信托基金（National Employee Savings Trust）合作，了解对收入以及短期和长期储蓄行为的影响。全国雇员储蓄信托基金是英国最大的低收入工人养老金提供者。第三，与英国最大的金融聚合应用Moneydashboard合作，模拟“封锁”措施对各行业消费者支出和企业生存的影响。第四，与Natwest合作评估政府冠状病毒商业中断贷款计划（CBILS）的影响。研究结果将提交给政策制定者赞助商，研究人员将继续与政策制定者一起进行实时政策设计。

The Covid-19 pandemic together with the unprecedented and radical economic policy response on the part of government has resulted in severe disruption to consumer finances and small business finances. There is an urgent and timely need to evaluate the extent of disruption and the effectiveness of recent policy innovations. This project will use a new and unique set of real-time, high frequency data available to evalute these far faster can be achieved with traditional ONS datasources.The project involves the creation of a new real-time economic characterisation of consumer and firm behaviour from mass transaction data. Specifically, the work will evaluate impact on consumer finances (reduced incomes, non-payment of debts, patterns of saving and expenditure) and small business finances (turnover and business continuity). The research will be co-produced with four organisations.First, working with the Financial Conduct Authority, the regulator of the consumer financial sector in the UK, to evaluate the impact on consumer indebtedness and evaluate the FCA's policy response, the Consumer Credit (Temporary Covid-19 Support Measures) Order 2020 (CCO220) andthe 3 month mortgage forbearnce scheme. Second, working with the National Employee Savings Trust, the largest provider of pensions to low income workers in the UK, to understand the effectson incomes and short-term and long-term saving behaviour.Third, working with the UK's largest financial aggregator app, Moneydashboard, to model the impact of 'lockdown' measures on consumer spending and business survival across sectors.Fourth, working with Natwest to evaluate the impact of the government's Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS).Findings will be presented to policymaker sponsors the researchers will continue to work with policymakers in real-time policy design.