Hong Kong BNO Migrants Panel Survey

为了应对政治权利受到侵蚀，特别是在香港实施《国家安全法》，内政部于2020年10月宣布，所有拥有英国海外国民身份（BNO）的香港居民及其近亲属都可以申请移民英国的签证。在香港750万居民中，有多达540万人可能符合资格申领海外居留证。这赋予他们在英国工作的权利，并提供了获得英国公民身份的途径。这一声明代表着英国移民政策的根本转变。以前，bno（尽管有这个名字）的权利非常有限。相比之下，这个范围更广的计划到目前为止基本上没有争议。该计划的实施存在很大的不确定性。英国内政部估计，第一年可能会有12.3万至15.37万人来到英国，前五年可能会有25.8万至32.24万人来到英国。它还给出了一个合理的上限估计，即100万。迄今可获得的有限数据表明，资金流动规模很大。2021年1月31日至2021年12月31日期间，共有103,990份BNO签证申请。有了BNO计划，我们见证了有史以来从单一来源国流入英国的最大移民之一。香港出生的英国居民的数量可能会在几年内增加两倍甚至四倍。20世纪50年代和60年代的“风吹”一代，60年代和70年代的东非亚洲人，以及21世纪头十年中期的中欧和东欧移民，都对英国的社会结构产生了持久的变化。我们相信，BNO移民的到来也将在未来几十年给英国带来深刻的社会、经济，或许还有政治变革。bno在英国的社会和经济状况如何？他们的需求和经验是什么？他们与其他移民/少数民族的成员相比如何？若干年后，有多少国籍人士会返回香港？在这一点上，我们没有系统的、可靠的、有代表性的数据来让我们自信地回答这些问题。为了填补空缺，我们会设计和实施一项有关在英国的香港籍外劳的调查。在内政部的合作下，我们将能够抽取2000名BNO移民的代表性样本。我们将在三年内对他们进行三次采访。这项调查将在bno到达时为我们提供有关它们的信息。它还将告诉我们他们在这个国家定居后不断演变的结果和轨迹。据我们所知，这将是第一个系统的、纵向的、追踪一个主要移民群体（几乎）从他们抵达英国开始的社会科学研究。我们将分析bno融入英国经济和社会的情况，研究内容涵盖劳动力市场结果、移民过程和意图、歧视、社会网络和社会凝聚力等主题。我们的数据将成为移民研究领域其他学者和政策分析人士的丰富资源。这个项目将加深我们对bno和移民融合过程的理解。

In response to the erosion of political rights and, in particular, the imposition of a National Security Law in Hong Kong, the Home Office announced in October 2020 that all Hong Kong residents with British National Overseas (BNO) status and their close family members could apply for visas to move to the UK. Up to 5.4 million of Hong Hong's 7.5 million residents are potentially eligible under the BNO scheme. This gives them the right to work in the UK and provides a path to full British citizenship. This announcement represents a radical shift in UK immigration policy. Previously, BNOs (despite the name) had very limited rights. In the wake of the Tiananmen Square massacre, 50,000 Hong Kong residents and their family members were given the right of abode in the UK, against the background of substantial political opposition. By contrast, this much more wide-ranging scheme has so far been largely uncontroversial. There is huge uncertainty about the take-up of the scheme. The Home Office estimates that between 123,000 and 153,700 people might come to the UK in the first year, and between 258,000 and 322,400 people over the first five years. It also gives a plausible upper-bound estimate of one million. The limited data that is available so far suggests that flows have been significant. There were 103,990 BNO visa applications between 31 January 2021 and 31 December 2021. With the BNO scheme, we are witnessing one of the largest migrant inflows to the UK from a single source country ever recorded. The number of Hong Kong-born residents in the UK could triple or even quadruple within a few years. The Windrush generation of the 1950s and 1960s, the East African Asians of the 1960s and 1970s, and the Central and Eastern European migrants from the mid-2000s have all made lasting changes to the social fabrics of the UK. We believe the arrival of the BNO migrants will also bring profound social, economic, and perhaps political changes in Britain in the decades to come. How will the BNOs fare, socially and economically, in the UK? What are their needs and experience? How do they compare with members of other migrant/minority ethnic groups? How many of the BNOs will return to Hong Kong after a few years? At this point we do not have systematic, reliable, and representative data that will allow us answer these questions with confidence. To fill in the gap, we will design and implement a survey of the Hong Kong BNO migrants in the UK. With the cooperation of the Home Office, we will be able to draw a representative sample of 2,000 BNO migrants. We will interview them three times over three years. This survey will give us information about the BNOs as they arrive. It will also tell us their evolving outcomes and trajectories as they settle in the country. To our knowledge, this will be the first systematic, longitudinal, social science study that tracks a major migrant group (almost) from the time of their arrival in the UK. We will analyse the BNOs' integration into the UK economy and society, with research strands covering topics such as labour market outcomes, migration processes and intentions, discrimination, social networks, and social cohesion. Our data will become a rich resource for other scholars and policy analysts in the field of migration research. This project will deepen our understanding of the BNOs and of the process of migrant integration in general.