A multi-country analysis of temperature-mortality associations from a climate change perspective

非最佳室外温度是一个已知的人类健康风险因素，与高和低暴露相关的死亡风险增加。有几项研究试图量化气候变化的相关影响，考虑到平均气温和极端天气事件的预测上升。然而，温度-死亡率的关联显示出很大的地理和时间异质性，这在很大程度上仍然是无法解释的，并知之甚少的因素决定人口的脆弱性或恢复力的温度的影响。这些信息对于在气候变化下进行可靠的影响预测，以及制定有效的公共卫生政策以减轻健康负担至关重要。该项目旨在通过系统评估温度对具有明显不同特征的人群死亡率的关联和未来影响来解决这些研究空白。该项目得益于有史以来为此目的收集的最大数据集，包括1972年至2012年期间来自13个国家384个地点的数据。分析将基于最近为模拟复杂的温度-健康关系而开发的灵活分析方法。第一次评估将探讨气候、人口、社会经济和基础设施特征在改变温度死亡风险方面的作用。这些信息将用于第二次评估，以预测综合情景下的影响，其中考虑到长期趋势和缓解和适应战略的实施可能导致的敏感性变化。该项目将全面描述温度对健康的影响和相关的气候变化影响，并提供一个平台，以定量评估替代公共卫生政策和适应措施的好处。

Non-optimal outdoor temperature is a known risk factor for human health, with increased mortality risk associated with both high and low exposures. Several studies have attempted to quantify the related impact in a changing climate, considering the predicted increase in average temperature and extreme weather events. However, temperature-mortality associations show a substantial geographical and temporal heterogeneity that is still largely unexplained, and little is known about the factors determining vulnerability or resilience of populations to the effects of temperature. This information is critical to produce reliable impact projections under climate change, and to develop effective public health policies to attenuate the health burden. This project aims to address these research gaps by offering a systematic evaluation of the association and future impact of temperature on mortality across populations with markedly different characteristics. This project benefits from the availability of the largest data set ever collected for this purpose, including data from 384 locations within 13 countries between 1972 and 2012. Analyses will be based on flexible analytical methods recently developed for modelling complex temperature-health relationships. A first assessment will explore the role of climatological, demographic, socio-economic and infrastructural characteristics in modifying the mortality risk of temperature. This information will be used in second assessment to project the impact under composite scenarios accounting for potential changes in susceptibility due to secular trends and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies. This project will provide a comprehensive characterization of the health effects of temperature and the related climate change impact, and a platform to quantitatively evaluate the benefits of alternative public health policies and adaptation measures.