Modelling Magma Movement: linking indirect observations with dynamic processes

在这个奖学金，我将提供下一代的岩浆填充的裂缝模型，通过建立在我的开发新的方法和应用多学科的方法来煽动火山喷发预测和火山灾害评估的一步变化的跟踪记录。通信革命需要在火山危机之前和期间做出快速可靠的决策，但现有的岩浆地下流动模型不足以实现这一点。我们需要确定不同岩浆流动状态和主岩变形模式占主导地位的条件，因为这些条件直接影响地下岩浆的喷发潜力。我们需要认识到岩浆上升途径和喷发潜力如何受到岩石学特征、三维几何形状和热传递的影响。我们需要在暴露的古代火山管道系统中建立我们的理论，物理和化学理解。最后，我们需要综合模拟、数学和现场实验的见解，并使这些组合模型能够被部署，以提高火山喷发预测的准确性和可靠性。我将利用我在火山管道系统方面的多学科专业知识，并与来自学术界和政府机构的项目合作伙伴密切合作，将模拟建模、数学建模、地球物理观测和火山系统的地质分析，以建立下一代堤坝和岩床模型。我将使用新的成像技术与模拟建模相结合，以耦合岩浆侵入和主岩变形与相关的表面扭曲的动力学。我将开发尖端的数学模型，以探索岩浆侵入的热，岩石学和几何行为，考虑岩浆流动动力学和主岩变形，从传播到凝固。我将对两个互补且不同的侵入体进行最先进的现场实验，并使用实验室技术来了解岩浆流动和寄主岩石变形是如何发生的。我将比较现场，模拟和数学模型的见解，并与火山和空间观测站合作，测试和开发它们，以便它们可以集成到地质灾害评估系统中。这些模型将成为国际火山灾害评估基础设施的一部分，用于大大减少火山爆发的人力和经济成本。

In this fellowship I will deliver the next generation of magma-filled fracture models, by building on my track record of developing novel methodologies and applying a multidisciplinary approach to instigate a step change in eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard assessment. The communication revolution requires rapid and reliable decision making in the lead up to and during volcanic crises, but existing models of magma sub-surface flow are insufficient to allow this. We need to identify the conditions under which different magma flow regimes and host-rock deformation modes dominate, because these directly affect the eruption potential of underground magma. We need to recognise how magma ascent pathways and eruption potential are influenced by petrological characteristics, 3D geometry and heat transfer. We need to ground-truth our theoretical, physical and chemical understanding in exposed ancient volcanic plumbing systems. Finally, we need to synthesise insight from analogue, mathematical and field experiments and enable these combined models to be deployed to improve the accuracy and reliability of volcanic eruption forecasts.I will use my multidisciplinary expertise in volcanic plumbing systems and work closely with Project Partners from academia and government organisations to integrate analogue modelling, mathematical modelling, geophysical observations and geological analyses of volcanic systems to build the next generation of dyke and sill models. I will use novel imaging techniques combined with analogue modelling to couple the dynamics of magma intrusion and host-rock deformation with the associated surface distortions. I will develop cutting-edge mathematical models to explore the thermal, petrological and geometric behaviour of magma intrusions, considering magma flow dynamics and host-rock deformation, from propagation to solidification. I will perform state-of-the-art field experiments on two complementary and distinct suites of intrusions and use laboratory techniques to understand how the magma flow and host rock deformation occurred. I will compare field, analogue and mathematical model insights and collaborate with volcano and space observatories to test and develop them so they can be integrated into geohazard assessment systems. These models will form part of the international infrastructure of volcanic hazard assessment used to significantly minimise the human and economic cost of volcanic eruptions.