Addressing the ability of marine aquaculture to respond to climate change using systems thinking and precision-based frameworks

据估计，到2050年全球人口将超过90亿。预计这将导致对粮食的需求增加100%。世界需要更多以负责任的方式生产的高质量蛋白质。联合国可持续发展目标2（零饥饿）和可持续发展目标12（负责任的消费和生产）解决了这一挑战。扩大海鱼养殖已被强调为增加粮食产量的关键途径。它也是蓝色经济的重要领域，创造新的就业机会和收入的潜力很大。在英国，海洋水产养殖对经济的贡献超过20亿英镑，提供2300个就业岗位，并有到2030年将产量翻一番的雄心。但气候变化是一个威胁，因为鱼类生产对环境高度敏感。气候变化评估往往只适用于大范围的地区，例如全球或区域，而且没有捕捉到影响鱼类生产的当地条件。他们关注的是长期的十年平均值，而忽略了鱼类所经历的日常环境变化和多种压力因素。对养殖鱼类的生长、健康和福利的影响取决于养殖场一级的这些环境-生物复杂性，也受到可能基于社会或经济因素的生产战略和行业决策的影响。强有力的、与行业相关的气候影响评估必须包括不同自然过程和人类干预之间的复杂性、关系和权衡。因此，迫切需要一种更全面的方法，利用系统思维来捕捉相互联系的跨学科组成部分。精密水产养殖收集和分析了大量数据，提供了一个框架，可以提供了解复杂农场系统、评估环境变化和评估对未来生产的影响所需的细节。在本次FLF中，我将提供一个严谨的科学框架，利用系统思维和基于精确的信息来评估气候变化对海洋水产养殖的影响。我将创建一种方法，将复杂的农业系统中目前正在发生的事情的详细知识与未来气候变化的预测和潜在的利益相关者的反应结合起来。这将包括收集高分辨率数据、分析复杂数据集、开发农场级模型、模拟未来气候情景以及确定该部门的适应能力。我将与我的主要行业合作伙伴、研究机构、监管机构和政策制定者密切合作，最大限度地将知识和方法转化和转移给行业和相关利益相关者。大西洋鲑鱼（Salmo salar）水产养殖在东北大西洋（苏格兰和挪威）被用作一个案例研究。鲑鱼是海洋鱼类的主要产量，每年产量超过200万吨，相当于175亿顿饭。挪威和苏格兰占总产量的60%。养殖场的纬度范围横跨鲑鱼的耐热性，从苏格兰和挪威南部的温带环境到挪威北部的北极环境。这样就可以评估气候变化的时空异质性，并对不同地点和不同应对措施之间的影响如何变化进行全面分析。除水产养殖外，海洋养鱼场的定位为深入了解沿海地区气候变化的速度、幅度和可变性提供了难得的机会。该FLF将提供重要的新知识、数据和方法，以了解环境如何变化。这项研究是高度跨学科的，涵盖了气候、环境、生物和社会科学的各个方面。创新技术和变革方法将使水产养殖能够应对气候紧急情况，增加蓝色经济机会，并最大限度地提高其对全球粮食安全的贡献。

By 2050 it is estimated that the global population will exceed 9 billion. This is expected to result in a 100% increase in demand for food. The world needs more high-quality protein, produced in a responsible manner. This challenge is addressed by UN Sustainable Development Goals SDG2 (Zero hunger) and SDG12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). Expansion of marine fish aquaculture has been highlighted as a key route to increase food production. It is also an important area for the blue economy with high potential for new jobs and revenue. In the UK, marine aquaculture is worth over £2 billion to the economy, supports 2300 jobs and has ambitions to double production by 2030. But climate change is a threat as fish production is highly sensitive to the environment.Climate change assessments are often only available for large areas, e.g. global or regional, and do not capture the local conditions that influence fish production. They focus on long-term decadal averages which miss the daily environmental variability and multiple stressors that fish experience. Impacts on growth, health and welfare of the farmed fish are determined by these environment-biological complexities at farm level, and are also influenced by production strategies and industry decisions which may be based on social or economic factors. Robust, industry-relevant, climate impact assessment must include the complexities, relationships and trade-offs between different natural processes and human interventions. Thus, a more comprehensive approach which uses systems thinking to capture the interlinking interdisciplinary components is urgently needed. Precision aquaculture, where vast amounts of data are collected and analysed, offers a framework to provide the detail required to understand the complex farm system, evaluate how the environment is changing and assess implications for future production. In this FLF, I will deliver a rigorous scientific framework for assessing impact of climate change on marine aquaculture using systems thinking and precision-based information. I will create an approach which integrates detailed knowledge of what is happening in the complex farm system now, with future projections of climate change and potential stakeholder response. This will involve collecting high resolution data, analysing complex datasets, developing farm-level models, simulating future climate scenarios, and determining the adaptive capacity of the sector. I will work closely with my network of key industry partners, research organisations, regulators and policy makers to maximise translation and transfer of knowledge and approaches to industry and associated stakeholders.Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) aquaculture in the Northeast Atlantic (Scotland and Norway) is used as a case study. Salmon leads marine fish production, with over 2 million tonnes produced each year, the equivalent of 17.5 billion meals. Norway and Scotland are responsible for 60% of production. The latitudinal range of farms extends across the thermal tolerance of the salmon, from temperate conditions in Scotland and south Norway, to arctic conditions in the north of Norway. This allows assessment of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of climate change and a thorough analysis of how impact may vary between locations and different responses required. Beyond aquaculture, the positioning of marine fish farms offers an exceptional opportunity to gain deeper insight into the rate, magnitude and variability of climate change in coastal areas. This FLF will deliver vital new knowledge, data and approaches to understand how the environment is changing.This research is highly interdisciplinary, covering aspects of climate, environmental, biological and social science. The innovative techniques and transformative approaches will allow aquaculture to respond to the climate emergency, enhance blue economy opportunities and maximise its contribution to global food security.