Coastal ecosystems, governance and poverty: A case study of managing the Brahmaputra-Ganges mega-delta in a changing world

三角洲的生态系统服务往往支持高人口密度--据估计全球人口超过5亿，南亚、东南亚和东亚就是重要的例子。正如IPCC AR4评估指出的，三角洲是最脆弱的沿海环境之一，其生态系统服务在未来几年和几十年面临多重压力，包括(1)三角洲内发展(例如城市化)的本地驱动因素，(2)集水区管理变化(例如大坝建设)的区域驱动因素，以及(3)全球气候变化，特别是海平面上升，要了解如何维持三角洲地区的生态系统服务并减少贫困和脆弱性，需要考虑所有这些压力及其相互作用。这一伙伴关系和项目发展赠款(PPDG)旨在制定一项更大的提案，制定方法来了解和描述恒河-雅鲁藏布江三角洲的这些多重变化驱动因素，探索它们对三角洲居民贫困和脆弱性的影响，并开发面对21世纪存在的巨大不确定性的管理系统。选择恒河-雅鲁藏布江三角洲是因为它是最脆弱的三角洲之一(包括孟加拉国的大部分地区和印度的西孟加拉邦)，但正在提出的方法将适用于亚洲、非洲和南美洲其他三角洲系统的管理。这一PPDG集成了多个调查范围，这些调查通常是在不同学科中独立探索的。因此，整合自然科学、工程学和社会科学的观点是至关重要的，这将是PPDG将在项目团队现有经验的基础上探索的关键步骤，例如廷德尔气候变化研究中心。PPDG旨在制定一项提案，以贫困或与贫困有关的结果作为关键指标，为基线和未来条件综合上述所有问题。该提案还将考虑治理和政治意愿等关键干预因素，以解决腐败问题以及气候变化和其他危害的社会和经济影响。贫困结果将被视为更广泛的福祉，而不仅仅是金钱指标，后者在这种情况下可能并不相关。我们将探讨这些情景对健康、教育、社会资本和安全以及资产贫困和营养水平的影响。将开展以前的研究，以了解沿海人口潜在复原力和脆弱性水平不同的影响。特别关注的将是社会资本和物质福利的可能门槛，超过这一门槛后，上述多重压力将产生灾难性影响，包括大规模移民等连锁反应。分析将在不同的层面上进行--包括对个人、家庭、社区、更广泛的地区以及最终对整个国家和三角洲的影响。PPDG将在三个国家(英国、孟加拉国和印度)发展研究联盟，并改进确定的研究问题，以制定2010年12月提交的提案。特别是，它将使我们能够将研究嵌入恒河-雅鲁藏布江，以促进采纳如果为整个提案提供资金将出现的政策建议。

The ecosystem services of deltas often support high population densities - estimated at over 500 million people globally, with important examples in south, south-east and East Asia. As noted in the IPCC AR4 Assessment, deltas are one of the most vulnerable coastal environments and their ecosystem services face multiple stresses in the coming years and decades including (1) local drivers due to development (e.g., urbanisation) within the delta, (2) regional drivers due to changes in catchment management (e.g. dam construction), and (3) global climate change, especially sea-level rise, Understanding how to sustain ecosystem services and reduce poverty and vulnerability in deltaic areas requires consideration of all these stresses and their interaction. This Partnership and Project Development Grant (PPDG) aims to develop a larger proposal that will develop methods to understand and characterise these multiple drivers of change for the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta, explore their implications for poverty and vulnerability of the delta residents, and develop management systems that are resilient in the face of the large uncertainties that exist for the 21st Century. The Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is selected as it is one of the most vulnerable deltas (embracing most of Bangladesh and West Bengal, India), but the methods that are being proposed will be transferable to the management of other delta systems in Asia, Africa and South America. This PPDG integrates across multiple scales of investigation that are often explored independently in different disciplines. Hence, integration of natural science, engineering and social science views is critical and this will be a key step which the PPDG will explore, building on existing experience in the project team such as within the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The PPDG aims to develop a proposal that integrates all the above issues for both the baseline and future conditions, using poverty or poverty-related outcomes as the key indicators. The proposal will also consider critical intervening factors such as governance and political will in tackling both corruption and the social and economic effects of climate change and other hazards. Poverty outcomes will be considered as a much wider spectrum of wellbeing than just money metrics, which may not be relevant in this setting. We will explore the effect of the scenarios on health, education, social capital and security as well as asset poverty and nutritional levels. Previous research will be developed in order to understand the effects of differing underlying resilience and vulnerability levels among the coastal populations. Particular interest will be focussed on possible thresholds of social capital and material wellbeing, after which the multiple stresses above would have catastrophic effects, including knock on effects such as mass migration. Analysis will occur at various levels - including effects on the individual, the household, the community, the wider area and ultimately the whole nation and delta. The PPDG will develop the research consortium across three countries (UK, Bangladesh and India) and refine the research questions identified to develop a proposal for the December 2010 submission. In particular, it will allow us to embed the research in the Ganges-Brahmaputra to facilitate take-up of the policy recommendations that would emerge if the full proposal was funded.